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Author: impliedvolatilty One star, 50 posts Feste Award Nominee! Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 11006  
Subject: Re: Buy LEAP Calls vs. Sell LEAP Puts Date: 4/10/2001 1:16 AM
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Sorry to burst your bubble,

I would wager it is probably hard to find another company with that impressive of performance over that time span

The benefit of hindsight makes this an easy challenge. Obvious champions such as Microsoft, EMC, and Intel spring to mind. A comparison using these examples is somewhat unfair.

But what are the dividends from
Consistency
Size
Capital

If I were to select candidates based on these criteria these would be my selections

and the results, dividends not included


http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amat&d=my&c=utx%2Baig%2Bge

With:
a fraction of the standard deviation
deeply diversified income streams,
ultra conservative financial management,



Serious and meaningful advantages to an investor far surpassing the disproportionate risk to shareholder capital which is de rigueur for AMAT. AMAT is now changing hands at 15X cash flow, 5XRev, 10X tangible book, with margins swinging wildly between 4% and 20% (and back again) over the past decade.

At cyclical lows Jan 95, Sept 96, Oct 98
AMAT
Changed hands at 1-2XREV
Dividends not available

How will Applied's revenue fare in the current “deceleration” well what do you think are reasonable assumptions in regard to the prospects for the semis, their customers?

Financial Strength
Predictability
Persistence

Are far more valuable than you might suppose

Risk averse wins
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