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Sosa, Bonds and Clemens will not make it, at least not first ballot. Schilling and Piazza, maybe. (Piazza's numbers are easily enough as the best offensive catcher in history, but there is a whiff of suspicion on him -- but certainly not as much as the first three I mentioned -- and Schilling's postseason record may be the difference for him, too.) Biggio should be in, with over 3,000 hits in demanding defensive positions (C, 2B, CF)... and no real suspicion of PEDs. If Biggio were up against *clean* Bonds and *clean* Clemens among others, he might not make it first ballot, but I think he will under the circumstances.

As for those returning to the ballot, this could be the year for Jack Morris, as his ascension in the vote totals over the years looks a lot like Blyleven's. That many of the new candidates may be passed over on first ballot because of known or suspected juicing will likely help him.

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