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Author: Daryll40 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 757897  
Subject: S&P "Should be" 1835 Date: 12/30/2002 10:22 AM
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Just for fun, about 16 months ago, on August 20, 2001 (before 9/11) I clipped a full page add from Barrons by USB/PaineWebber. The ad stated, in bold print:"We believe the fair value of the S&P500 at the end of 2002 should be 50% above the index's level today." The fine print then states that the S&P should be at 1835 at year end 2002.

This is why I index and asset allocate.

Daryll40
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Author: joelxwil Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 88134 of 757897
Subject: Re: S&P "Should be" 1835 Date: 12/30/2002 10:58 AM
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Somebody makes a totally preposterous prediction (even without 9/11) and it causes you to be glad you bought the index? Why aren't you sorry you did not short it?


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Author: Daryll40 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 88177 of 757897
Subject: Re: S&P "Should be" 1835 Date: 12/30/2002 2:46 PM
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Joexwill WritesSomebody makes a totally preposterous prediction (even without 9/11) and it causes you to be glad you bought the index? Why aren't you sorry you did not short it?

OK! Fair enough! I guess I would have been somewhat wealthier had I shorted the S&P in August of 2001. That being said, if I had done that, I'd be market timing and I CERTAINLY am not smart enough to know how to make money doing THAT consistently. My point was that I was glad I chose an overall conservative asset allocation and did not fall prey to financial porn like that.



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