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Author: SnowBawl Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 36588  
Subject: Startling free scan result. Date: 1/5/2013 11:19 AM
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I share because it happened. I use CAPS to track lists of he-saids, scans, scams, whatever else catches my fancy. After a year of following one list, it appeared to produce most remarkable returns, though I wasn't tracking the exact result. A good handful of really big gainers.

So, on 12/5/12, one month ago, I put in the new formal list, which you can see raw results in my CAPS list on 12/5. The scan is free, Yahoo's small cap growth scan, with the additional parameter of a price to sales ration of < 1. The list of 25 stocks AVERAGED a 10% return to the S&P500's 3.14%. I regard that as a remarkably powerful list of outperformers, for such a big clump. And with so little effort on my part.

There were 4 outliers, that returned 43, 29, 25 and 21 percent. I kicked two off the list for underperforming the index by more than 10%, and accounted them accordingly. Only 5 underperfomed the index. So 20 of 25 beat the index. Two of the remaining 23 were negative, with an average of -2%.

I'm finding this staggering. It's a small sample time, but a pretty healthy sample size. It is bearing out what I though I was seeing the year before.

I share because I have the result.
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Author: SnowBawl Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 36521 of 36588
Subject: Re: Startling free scan result. Date: 1/5/2013 11:24 AM
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Correction or clarification. 21 of the 25 appear to have outperformed the index.

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Author: SnowBawl Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 36522 of 36588
Subject: Re: Startling free scan result. Date: 1/5/2013 11:26 AM
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Ratio, not ration, dang it.

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Author: Calabogie Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 36523 of 36588
Subject: Re: Startling free scan result. Date: 1/7/2013 6:31 AM
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That's impressive and unexpected. You may have found a fairly simple way to insure a decent return! :-) I'm going to check it out myself and see if my results come back the same as yours do.

I've been trying to get back into trading but I just haven't had the time required to devote to it. That plus my anger at the politicians in power right now have kept me from keeping my head clear, which for me is required in order to do well.

I've tried to put it out of my head that government spying is just going to continue and there's nothing I can do about it and I've tried to stop worrying that the President can put anyone (inlcuding US citizens) on his "kill list" without any oversight or even public justification. It used to be that I could ignore that garbage and not let it bother me but working in Europe, I see a lot of the anger and resentment focused on the US by other nations every day.

Anyway, I'm going to try to keep myself in check and concentrate on getting back into trading on a serious basis. I will be posting what I'm looking at, what I pick up and when and at what price, and how I plan to play it. It might take a few weeks for me to get back up to speed but hopefully I'll be posting regularly by the end of this month.

Happy New Year everyone and for those of you in the DC or Orlando areas, I will be in both of those places in March of this year. I'll also be in the Ft. Leavenworth area in July of this year and I'd love to get together with anyone who is around at that time.

RayBH: Get back to me about when you plan to visit Orlando. Even if it's not in March I may be able to get you a deal and I can set up a meet and greet with my daughter who works there.

Calabogie

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Author: SnowBawl Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 36524 of 36588
Subject: Re: Startling free scan result. Date: 1/8/2013 4:06 PM
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I'll run another set of data every month, and see how they hold up. I'll post it here.

I know what you mean about keeping a clear head. I've been drifting somewhat on the trading front, but fully invested in the boring money index which is most of our pile. I was sure the cliff wasn't and bought the farm on about a 5% dip around Thanksgiving. That one even got WifeBawl's attention. Good thing we can't spend it yet. Lol.

I have a boring money (MLP) friend who's been bugging me tips for how to trade his poker money. Funny thing is, he kills me on my own tips. He has hair trigger paranoia and takes anything that looks like a gain back off the table. He thinks I'm a genius, but it's the ants in his pants that are making him the most money. He has some fun with it anyway.

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Author: SnowBawl Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 36536 of 36588
Subject: Re: Startling free scan result. Date: 2/7/2013 10:24 AM
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After 2 months and two days.

20 of 25 are still on the list, not having fallen 10% below the index (6% gain). The 5 that fell off the list were therefore accounted at minus 4% apiece. Shady accounting practice.

14 of the original 25 beat the market. But the aggregate score then is about a 7% gain, which is a two month market out-performance of 17%, in newsletter terms.

Outliers and percentages (rounded) they actually gained:
TITN 23
FDML 32
UIS 36
BGCP 26
CMLS 41
AXL 17
BZH 19
TNS 44

I rode CMLS to a nice gain.

I bought BGCP in a non-trading, LTBH account. It had formed an ascending triangle, had a stupid P/S ratio, and I think today the yield is still over 11% after it has run up some.

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Author: SnowBawl Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 36537 of 36588
Subject: Re: Startling free scan result. Date: 2/7/2013 10:27 AM
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There's another caveat, which I can't account for. The ones I'm citing are only the ones that CAPS actually accepted. I don't know what impact those had on this outcome.

Many of my best trades this year were CAPS rejects. But it's a handy place to track bundles of stocks anyway.

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