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Author: bk777 Three stars, 500 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 160  
Subject: Re: when to leap? Date: 11/17/1999 1:16 PM
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stevers1,

Many different boards on the MF have attempted to address your question as it is posed by all of us at that point in time when we take the PLUNGE. There really isn't a right or wrong approach, but there are some useful considerations to ponder in your dilemma. Firstly, trying to time the market is a difficult and often frustrating venture. Studies done by Fidelity and several other brokerage houses have shown that the bulk of your gains in any given stock occur in less than 14 days out of every year - losses are likely to occur in even a shorter time. Being nimble enough and intelligent enough to time your purchases to take advantage of these limits is unrealistic. Secondly, the greatest determinant of long term investing success relates to how you allocate your resources and how little you trade - not when you put your money in.
The friction costs of frequent trades, plus taxation issues will wipe out a great deal of your gains, if you "play" the market too much. Lastly, if you have done due diligence on your selections, AND if you are happy that you are getting fair value for the price you pay, then the time to invest is now. Several years ago, the WSJ had an article comparing dollar cost averaging into the market versus lump sum investing. Conventional wisdom held that dca was the way to go, but the article referenced several studies showing that lump summing was the way to go.

This all is not to say that once you dump your wad into the goldmines of tomorrow that the market may not plunge. Time is still on your side.

You have already made the best decision which is to get into stocks as vehicles for investment purposes.

Just 2 drachmas from a once wise, now foolish doc.

Good luck.

Bernie
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