Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
 
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (4) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next
Author: jjaym Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 2753  
Subject: Stocks for 2009 Date: 12/30/2008 5:23 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 0
This is year eight of my end of year exercise to identify what I believe are my top 10 holdings for the coming year. These are the 10 stocks that I already have in my portfolio, that for one reason or another I feel have the best chance of doing well in the next year or so. These are all, of course, only my opinion, and I'd hate for anyone to invest in these, lose their money and blame me. So don't even think of investing in these without doing your own research. Targets are my naive idea of what I think is fair value for each of these. Not much turnover again this year. I generally keep about 20 stocks in my portfolio (now down to 18) and the stocks don't change a whole lot, so in a given year, we're looking at roughly 1/2 of my portfolio, not counting Mutual Funds/ETFs.


1) LTD - Limited stays at the number one spot after another bad year. Down nearly 50%, with an earnings yield of around 17% and a dividend yield of about 6%, any improvement in the outlook for retail should bode well for Limited. This would appear to be the best buying opportunity since 2003. Target reduced slightly to $30.

2) BKS - Barnes and Noble, new this year, is another currently unpopular retailer. With an Earnings Yield around 14% and a dividend yield around 7%, this is another one that should recover when consumers start consuming again. I can be patient in the interim. Selling below book value. Target of $40.

3) PFE - Pfizer moves up a notch to 3. Great Yield and reasonable earnings. Pipeline concerns are already baked into the price and I think Pfizer will find a way to address them through cost-cutting and acquisitions. Target reduced to $40 from $50.

4) DIS - Looks like a great opportunity to get Disney at a great price after a 30% decline in 2008. Target stays at $50.

5) BBOX - Black Box moves up a notch. Still looks good fundamentally and in good shape financially. Target increased to $60.

6) MSFT - Microsoft returns after an absence. Sub $20, I don't see how MSFT can miss long-term. Let's say $45 for a target.

7) SCHL - Another repeat moves up a notch. Scholastic's lumpy earnings make it a little tricky and cause some volativity. I'm a little less enchanted with this one as time goes on, but willing to give it a little more time to recover. Kids are going to continue to read and I think parents will be slow to give up buying books for their kids. Target reduced to $50.

8) MDT - Medtronic has been on my list before and it went down enough to be attractive again. Target of $70.

9) AMAT - Applied Materials returns. Long-term, I still like their position in Semi equipment as well as their advances in Solar. Pretty cheap for a tech company. Target reduced to $25.

10) JAS - Jo-Ann made a round trip this year. At one point in 2008, it was a double. I like it again at these levels. This seems like a retail stock that actually has potential to benefit from an economic slowdown, as perhaps more people will consider hand-making gifts or clothing. I'll increase the target to $25 this time.


Gone from last year's list are WM, HD & TLGD. I continue to hold HD and TLGD, but they are now smaller positions. You all know about WM.
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll . Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post  
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (4) | Ignore Thread Prev | Next

Announcements

Pencils of Promise - Back to School Drive
"Pencils of Promise works with communities across the globe to build schools and create programs that provide education opportunities for children."
Post of the Day:
Berkshire Hathaway

IBM: Is Buffett Wrong, or Brilliant?
What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and "#1 Media Company to Work For" (BusinessInsider 2011)! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.
Advertisement