Keane's stock is up about 50 % from where it was in December, but there's still no action on this board.Destroys one of my private "metrics" for buying and selling: how active is the board. If there's silence, I figure there are no buyers out there, so there's no hope for short-term stock price appreciation. But Kea is up 50 % without activity here, so another theory shot down.And there seems to be no news on the wires to account for this stealth rally ( a little at a time, no sudden pop). Anyone with any ideas on what's happening in this high-tech consulting space?
sifw: this is one of the quietest boards on the Motley Fool. I guess based on the company profile nobody is interested in a stock like this. I've been losing money on this company for 2.5 years but refuse to quit ;-( Anyway, just thought I'd let you know that there was somebody else on the board who was alive ...
I'm now back to just about even after 2 years. I have heard nothing to justify the bounce and I am frankly thinking about getting out. EPS will be about 52 cents for 2000 and even if earnings grow 25% from here on out. The stock price seems fully valued. Given the downside potential as the general slowdown spreads to firms like Keane and I don't see anyway Keane gets much north of $20. Keane reports next month and they usually give an upbeat assessment even if it is not justified or convincing. Perhaps the Jan. effect plus a reporting bounce is the cause?My 2 cents.
I got out today too - after holding for 2.x years and losing big time :( Its hard to see a services company get back on its feet in this environment. Anyway, now that I'm out, I'm sure the stock will double in the next quarter or two ;-)
See my post on better quater and good prospects for this year. Even so, it's a good time to get out. I'm looking to get out too. Since my basis is under $18, I'll probably regret getting greedy and seeing how far momentum can carry this stock, but it's selling for nearly 30x the improved guidance given by Keane today.
marathonrunner wrote: I got out today too - after holding for 2.x years and losing big time :( Its hard to see a services company get back on its feet in this environment. Anyway, now that I'm out, I'm sure the stock will double in the next quarter or two ;-)Sorry to see you go. Still, if it will cause the pop like you say... ;) I too have been holding for years. In fact, I've been steadilly buying into the sliding price. I believe in the underlying fundamentals of the company, and I believe that IT consulting is still a tremendous growth industry.My dollar cost averaging has meant that my average cost basis fallen at pretty much the same rate as the overall stock price. At this point (February 15, 2001: current price $16.75) I'm just about at break-even so a double from here is still a double for me. I'll admit, I'm using the Employee Stock Purchase Plan, so I get a discount, with the added bonus that if the (eventual) bottom occurs near a purchase point, a full year's worth of investment will be at that point (I can go into further detail via email). With the stock price at $9.75 on December 31, 2000 I fully expect that the bottom has been met. PLEASE NOTE!!! I have been WAY wrong about this before (I recall saying, "There's no way the price will fall below $40... er $30... would you believe $20? Never mind").It also helps that I have a large chunk of stock in another company... one that has been doing well for the last 24 months. One of the tenants of Foolishness is "don't keep all your eggs in one basket." This helps one keep perspective during long-term slumps in a few of one's stocks.
Appreciated suvarov454's candid comments. I, too, think this kind of consultancy should work. Do you have a good handle on Keane's chief competitors (and similar to them in market cap) and how they're doing. As a stock club analyst for Keane, I really should check out the competition. When I pulled off the competition on an Internet research site, I got 14 pages with 700+ businesses, including SAP. Even I know SAP is far from a competitor to Keane.Thanks.
Keane was recently recognized as the premier provider in the application outsourcing sector by the Gartner group. The study focused on customers of major application outsourcing players. Some of the firms also listed in the studey were: IBM (Keane competes with their consulting arm on larger deals), CSC (Computer Sciences Corporation), and Cap Gemini/Earnst & Young, and EDS. Also, the compare companies link on this page lists come other competitors. AS for valuation of the stock, I can't honestly tell you where it should be. What I do know from a friend who is a trader is that the stock appears to have some stability at this point and this also around $9.00 a share. Additionally, there is resistance at about $20.00. Hope that helps a little.
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