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how this stk market is acting just like 84 and 94 even though i am not a big believer in 10 year cycles nor selective pattern matching. but its a little uncanny. 6,7% trading range all year, lots of reversals, falling implied vol, rising commodity prices, and then some weakness starting the week before oct oe (see my post on bear board from years ago called 'game of chicken'. i dunno, but the market has had a lot of limp spaghetti thrown at it lately, oil at 20 year hi's, dollar down, deteriorating situation in iraq, a close election, fed raising funds rate, the arthritis drugs, now spitzer's hounds are on the insurance industry. and yet, we are right in the middle of the years trading range at 1100. and 10 year treasuries have rallied back to 4%. a move down into the election on terror fears etc, or an actual attack with an emotional reaction to push it down would seem to be buyable to this bad spec. this all looks like the usual seasonality to me.
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