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Author: PeterLynchFan Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 892  
Subject: surveys Date: 3/5/2010 10:50 AM
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I'm looking for surveys about the pharmaceutical industry similiar to those:

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/76xx/doc7615/10-02-DrugR-D.pdf

http://hc.wharton.upenn.edu/danzon/PDF%20Files/Mergers&A...

If anybody has some, it would be greatly appreciated if you could share them. I'm especially looking for a survey adressing the governmental influence on pharmaceutical companies, but really any kind of survey would be appreciated.
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Author: TMFHelical Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 860 of 892
Subject: Re: surveys Date: 3/5/2010 11:12 AM
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PLFan,

First, thanks for those links, both of which I was completely unfamiliar with and at first glance look interesting.

As for 'surveys', I'm not sure what you are looking for, but there are some good (free) sources of information and opinion.

Start with OECD for all you can eat healthcare statistics.

http://www.oecdilibrary.org/oecd/content/book/health_glance-...

OECD site can be weird to navigate (I never seem to go in the same direction twice), but there is good info in it or linked by it.

For opinion, I have been enjoying the Pharma 2020 series from PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/pharma-life-sciences/pharma-2020/in...

And Ernst and Young has regular 'state of pharma' reports.

http://www.ey.com/US/en/Industries/Life-Sciences/Pharmaceuti...

Links seem to be off (annoying), but here is a link to the latest Progressions report (pdf linked).

http://www.pharmalot.com/2010/02/and-the-future-for-pharma-l...

The 'The top 10 business risks affecting life sciences companies' was good as well.

http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/The_2009_business_r...

That should get you started : )

TMFHelical
Home Coverage Fool

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Author: TMFHelical Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 861 of 892
Subject: Re: surveys Date: 3/5/2010 11:15 AM
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One more,

I like reading publications from pharmaco-economist Henry Grabowski when they cross my path as well.

http://econ.duke.edu/Econ/Faculty/Users/hgrabowski.html

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Author: PeterLynchFan Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 862 of 892
Subject: Re: surveys Date: 3/7/2010 8:20 AM
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Thanks a lot, I only took a brief look at those links, but they look promising.

Im still new to the pharmaceutical industry, new to investing in general, the only company I've analyzed, or still analyzing is Pfizer. What Im wondering about investing into pharmaceuticals is how to, as a value investor, value upcoming drugs? For example with Pfizer, Lipitor's patent expires in 2011, how can you compensate for that loss, I mean you can't rely on a new blockbuster drug to be developed, so basically how do you evaluate the ability of a pharmaceutical company's R&D's section?

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Author: TMFHelical Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 863 of 892
Subject: Re: surveys Date: 3/7/2010 9:23 AM
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PLFan,

Here is some commentary on Pfizer that may interest you. Its a couple months old, but PFE is cheaper now than then.

http://contrarianedge.com/2010/01/18/the-case-for-pfizer/

Looking at pharma pipelines is quite difficult. One needs to appreciate what the market potentials for the pending drugs are, the competition in the indication space, and the history of how difficult a particular indication is to get drugs approved. Alzheimer's for example has huge market potential, but it has been very difficult to come up with an effective anything.

I sure can't do it. So you end up giving some consideration to how many relatively near term shots on net a company has and some sense of whether they are good shots or not.

As the article points out, start with what the company is currently worth based on its existing revenue stream (and length of that stream), determine what premium over that value (if any) the market is assigning to the pipeline, then try to assess whether that seems correct or not, which is very speculative to be sure, and complicated by the consideration that pharmas rarely sit still, and are constantly making acquisitions.

TMFHelical
Home Coverage Fool

Really enjoying the CBO report you posted by the way, thanks again.

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Author: TMFHelical Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 864 of 892
Subject: Re: surveys Date: 3/7/2010 9:44 AM
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Here is an older article of Charly's that looks at pipeline resources. Didn't recheck the dated links though.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2004/08/02/whats-a-dru...

TMfHelical

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