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Author: junkman02 Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35661  
Subject: Re: Royal Caribbean’s Bonds? Date: 12/7/2009 3:32 PM
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Talk about picking a "timely" company to investigate! I swear I didn't know that TMF's research department was starting to dig into RCL. But just today, they did an article on RCL contrasting it with a competitor, CCL. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/12/07/better-buy-...

As I start digging into RCL's specifics, I suspect I might have over-estimated the downsides. They've got 38 boats in service, with construction orders for six more. That's a lot of iron floating around.Some of it has to be worth more than its scrapping value. RCL seems to be one fifth the size of CCL. So the latter would be the natural buyer of the better assets if RCL went under.

If the 7.5's of '27 are priced around 80, what I'd like to see is a way to justify a Ch 11 workout price of around 40. My guess is that a settlement with creditors would mainly be a debt-for-equity swap, although old-debt-for-new-debt, especially PIK debt, would probably be part of the mix as well. So much depends on how long it takes for the global economy to recover and how much discretionary money an aging global population --most cruise passengers are gray-haired-- wants to spend on a marine shopping/eating.
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