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Author: reitorwrong Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 77538  
Subject: Tech meltdown and REITs? Date: 12/31/1999 10:25 AM
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With great humility, brought about by many years of investment experience comprised of a few successes and many failures, I offer my first post to the 238 other REIT investors in the cosmos. Feedback concerning the post would be greatly appreciated.

As we move into the new millennium, my convictions are growing ever stronger that segments of the U.S. stock market, read “TECHNOLOGY”, are experiencing a classic mania. Even if one accepts, as I do, the belief that technology will revolutionize our lives, there are still economic realities that must be faced by investors in many of these businesses.

For example, the barriers to entry for many of the “dot com” businesses are extremely low. That fact, coupled with the “web shoppers'” price sensitivity and razor thin (profit?) margins will create a slippery slope for the vast majority of these businesses to be profitable and then grow those profits into the future. In my opinion, somewhere along the way, technology investors became so captivated by the prospect of the “technology revolution” they lost their ability to objectively evaluate the business prospects of many of the “dot com” companies.

Moreover, we are now at the stage (I have been there myself with other investments) in the mania cycle where people who have not participated are feeling left out and are now throwing money into technology because they want a piece of the action for all of the 100 percent per year gainers out there. How many of you have not heard someone you work with and/or a “talking head” describe how much you would have now if only you had invested $1,000 in “fillintheblank.com” in 1997.

In addition to wondering how and when this will end, my biggest question is what the fallout will be on our REIT investments when the meltdown occurs. Any thoughts, ideas or suggestions would be appreciated!

Best wishes for a very Happy and Prosperous New Millennium to my fellow REITsters!!!

Bob
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