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Author: BoxCarRidder4 Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 76418  
Subject: Re: Map to the Future Date: 5/30/2007 7:04 PM
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Telegraph, a lot of your reasoning seems to be founded in broad terms.

Everyone just 'loves' to assume their will be linear 8% growth, every month, magically, forever.

People don't assume that stocks increase the yearly average of 10% in any year, and they rarely hit that average. But that average includes major events such as the internet bubble and the Great Depression. This is a long term figure, not a analysis of what will happen next month, next year, or the next five years.

Now suppose he wants to buy a house upon graduation. Having all that money in a ROTH is nice, but the bank isn't going to be anxious to loan him a dime with $100,000 or $150,000 in debif he is looking for a $500K mortgage to buy a California cabin.

I don't plan on needing to, but if I did need to, I could essentially use money in the Roth for the house.

Now, try running your spreadsheet at 2% gain over inflation. That is the real number that Bernstein suggested in Four Pillars of Investing for the market going forward.

Bernstein is a knowledgeable man, but he does not know what returns will be like in the future any more than you or I, or any person for that matter.

You are a very debt averse person, but much of the benefit you receive from being so is psychological and not financial. Debt is not always bad, such as a home mortgage. If you are smart you can pick up good rates, let the government pay part of the interest, and should easily be able to make more off that money over time than if you had paid of the mortgage. Not to meant the money you pay to the bank in the future is not pegged to an inflation index, therefore you are paying less over the life of your loan. This obviously doesn't mean one should take on large amounts of debt because he can, but I think your idea that all debt is bad is simply flawed.

-Will
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