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Author: RedneckRoleModel Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 41315  
Subject: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/13/2007 9:01 PM
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It's the end of the year, when columnists like to predict things that might happen over the next year or longer. I'm no good at predicting the next year, but I do like thinking about long term trends. So I've put together Redneck's Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years. It should be emphasized that these are crazy predictions, many of which won't come true. But I think there's a strong chance that several of them do come to pass, and since they're so out of left field right now, they have the potential to surprise a lot of people. Some even have investment implications.

Let me know what you think, and what your crazy predictions are.

Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years

1. FatBrainMartian will change his screen name 19 times in the next decade.

2. There will be no ethanol production in the US by 2018. Production is increasing at double digit rates, but there will be no ethanol made in 2018. Why? Because ethanol has a lower energy content than gasoline, and it’s corrosive, making it unsuitable for transport via pipeline. We make ethanol today because we don’t yet have the technology for making plant-derived synthetic gasoline. However, today there are dozens of companies, startups, and university labs developing microbes to efficiently convert plant matter directly into synthetic gasoline, eliminating the need for a product as inferior as ethanol. Someone will get it right within the next decade, and whoever does will make one of the greatest fortunes of the century by selling their technology as a retrofit into existing ethanol plants. The DNA sequence of such a super bug will be the most valuable intellectual property on the planet.

3. Private colleges and universities will be free for 90% of the American population by 2018. Most of the Ivy League schools have eliminated all tuition and fees (room and board) and all student loans for families making less than $50,000 per year. This week, Harvard capped tuition and fees at 10% of income for families earning up to $180,000 per year. The trend started in 2001 with Princeton; today, there are approaching 30 schools that have implemented such policies (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_financial_aid). Colleges that have not implemented such policies will be at a huge disadvantage in recruiting, so college presidents, admissions deans, and boards of trustees are all hitting up alums to fund these grants. At some point, a university will seek to one up the recent Harvard announcement by making its tuition and fees free to all but the top 10% of families by income. When that announcement is made, dozens of schools will follow suit within 2 years. Within a decade, only hedge fund managers and professional athletes will actually pay to send their kids to college.

4. San Diego City, Orange County (CA), and the states of West Virginia and Illinois will file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy within ten years. They will be driven into bankruptcy by the huge debts in their pension and retiree health care systems. To stay afloat, they must earn over 8% per year on their investment portfolios, something that’s particularly difficult in a balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, real estate, international stocks, and alternative investments. It’s even more difficult for municipal and government funds, which typically are not able to attract top notch investment talent. And it’s nearly impossible to do if yields on stocks and bonds are rising, not falling. A mild bear market of a year or two would be enough to push the weakest of America’s municipal pension systems into bankruptcy, because the funds have not yet recovered enough of their losses from 2000 to 2002. The four listed above are the weakest.

5. Intel, with a market cap of $160 billion, will buy back $100 billion of its own stock over the next ten years. The share count will be unchanged. The stock price will be little changed.

6. Oil will rise to $650 per barrel by 2018, but production will never exceed its peak reached in 2005 – 2006. Contrary to some people’s beliefs, this will not cause the end of the world.

7. The Euro will collapse from $1.50 to below $0.60, driven by the profligacy of Italy. As the country continues to rack up huge debts in a currency they cannot print, Italy will hold the ECB hostage: either allow the currency to drop, or Italy will withdraw from the Euro and reissue all their debt in new, inflated Lira. The ECB, terrified of the exposure of Continental investors to mountains of potentially bad Italian debt (bought because it offered 30 bps of spread over German debt!), will capitulate. The chief victims: sovereign wealth funds who were desperate to diversify out of the dollar when the Euro was at $1.50.

8. The global labor arbitrage will be over by 2018. Already, production of certain goods is moving from China to the countries of Indochina, but there is a limit to the amount that can be moved to such places, since none are the size of China. By 2018, there will still be over a billion people in low wage countries willing to work for half the prevailing wage in China, but they will be beyond the reach of global capitalism, in failing states with insufficient infrastructure. Integrating those last billion people into the global economy will be the great challenge of the twenty years to come after 2018. Closer to home, a manufacturing operation choosing between siting in the US or China will have little incentive to choose China, unless the labor content of the product is extraordinarily high.

9. US wage gains, at all income levels, will exceed 5% per year over the next decade. Corporations, faced with the retirement of the boomer generation, will have no choice but to offer ever escalating salaries to keep boomers on into their 60s and 70s, and to compete for workers in their 30s and 40s, who will be overwhelmed by companies desperate to hire them. Wage gains will be a bigger engine for US economic growth in the next decade than home equity withdrawals were in the past ten years.

10. And now for my favorite: elephants, cheetahs, giraffes and lions will roam free across North America. Unlike most other continents, North America has essentially no native charismatic megafauna, since these animals were driven to extinction 13,000 years ago by the arrival of Native American hunters. Huge ecological niches now go unfilled in North America, making what we perceive to be wilderness actually an artificial landscape. Conservationists and naturalists have been trying to persuade large landowners to perform small experiments with imported, wild elephant populations for years. Someone, maybe Ted Turner, maybe someone else, will agree, and when elephants in North America are shown to increase biodiversity and create niches for other species to exploit (as they do in Africa), the rush to repopulate North America with large mammals will be on. People will make good money setting up a safari industry in the United States.

Best,
Redneck

PS In two weeks I'm going to reveal the winner of my stock picking contest for 2007. And since this year's contest went so well, I'm going to do it again. So start thinking about your entries.
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Author: abFatPitch Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30641 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/13/2007 10:11 PM
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1. There will be elected as President of the United States for the 1st time a woman and an African American. It will be the same person.

2. The capitol will move from Washington, D.C. to Chicago.

3. Everyone in the Studio Audience of America will be given a new Chevy Malibu personally subsidized by Madame President.

4. Shares of GM will rocket from 35 to 350 on the news and fall back when the recall is announced the following week.

5. Shares of publicly traded bookstores will quadruple as American's rediscover reading via the President's weekly books-to-read list.

6. America will come to be run by a syndicate that is named after a early 20th century Jewish comedian who didn't speak. The name coincidentally is the President's name spelled backwards.

7. America will become a fabulously wealthy and yet generous country as the syndicate knows no failures. As a result, Presidential term limits will be repealed effectively giving us a Queen. No one will care except a family from Texas.

8. Women's clothing stores will experience an unprecedented run on clothing in the color purple.

9. Overweight will be the new "sexy."

10. A man named Stedman will accept the title of First Bachelor for Life.

ab

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Author: warrl Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30642 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/13/2007 11:45 PM
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Modify #2: By 2018, the US will produce or consume only miniscule amounts of ethanol *for energy*.

(I expect a certain more traditional use to remain popular, and synthetic gasoline would not be an acceptable substitute.)

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Author: TMFWBuffettJr Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30649 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 7:48 AM
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Dammit! For the last time, Oprah didn't give anyone a car! Pontiac gave away the cars in what was the stupidest campaign of money wasting any auto company has ever conceived (and that is saying something). To this day, no one even knows which car or which company it was and Oprah still gets all the credit and praise. Every one loves Oprah for giving away cars...and then buys a Toyota. $8 million well spent.

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Author: TMFBreakerTAllan Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30650 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 9:45 AM
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1. I will be ten years older. So will most of the US and Canada. A lot of revenue will be spent by the aging population on paying others to do things that can no longer be done by them. (Vague enough to be correct?)

2. Three U.S. presidents will be elected and the market will overreact on speculation as to policy by each president-elect.

3. In ten years, there will be a list of the 10 best performing stocks somewhere on motleyfool.com and, if honest with myself, I will be able to say that I didn't hear of any of them prior to 2009.

4. We will all have a new computer and internet connection that makes us wonder how we put up with the technology in 2008.

5. I will look at a list of the best performing retail stocks of the last 5 years, and if honest with myself, I will be able to say that I didn't hear of any of them prior to 2009, and if I did, would have convinced myself to stay away for some reason or another.

T. Allan

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Author: Tiddman Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30651 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 9:51 AM
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4. We will all have a new computer and internet connection that makes us wonder how we put up with the technology in 2008.

It is incredible to think what has happened to technology in the past 10 years. 10 years ago, e-mail was restricted to dial-up modems and computer geeks. Google didn't exist. Cell phones were fairly unusual.

I try to tell kids aged 5-10 that I was around before the internet, and they think I'm some kind of dinosaur.

It's incredible to think what might come about in the next 10 years!

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Author: missash Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30652 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 10:04 AM
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<<<<<<<<<It is incredible to think what has happened to technology in the past 10 years. 10 years ago, e-mail was restricted to dial-up modems and computer geeks. Google didn't exist. Cell phones were fairly unusual.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I remember well that I couldn't understand the attraction of that new famgled means of communication my high school daughter was using....."email"??........jeez, just pick up the phone. I admit, however, that I do not own a cell phone. Probably a carryover from my oncall days/nights when I used to carry a beeper, which was always going off at the most inopportune times...... One of the newer technologies I do like is the remote start for my car. I keep the car outside in my circular driveway and on a freezing morning like today in New England, after a foot of snow last night, it is a thingy of beauty. My wife likes the heated seat technology

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Author: OracleofNormal Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30654 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 11:47 AM
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This will take a little longer than ten years, but you have to love a good distopia. A summary of M.T. Anderson's book "Feed"

1. Kids of the future will begin annoying their parents to death, wanting an internet connection installed in their head so they can shop, IM, play games and waste time without the exhausting necessity of moving their limbs or exerting physical effort. This will result in an odd increase in cancer rates among young people.

2. Corporations will buyout the public schools. They will then shift the focus of curriculum to product research and consumer studies from less important subjects like math, history and gym.

3. The media will act as an arm of the government keeping the mindless population uncaring and unaware of the technologically advanced wars fought with the rest of the world.

4. Civilization ends in a big mess. Say around 2045.


If you have some time, this is a great book which will probably stand next to 1984 and Brave New World as great distopic predictions of the future.

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Author: spybreak Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30656 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 12:00 PM
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Wage gains will be a bigger engine for US economic growth in the next decade than home equity withdrawals were in the past ten years.

Err... apologies in advance if this is not in the spirit of things, but as stated this just represents a transfer from captital to labor and shouldn't have much of a net effect on economic growth, and would be negative for profits.

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Author: spybreak Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30659 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 12:12 PM
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Don't know if these are sufficiently crazy, but here goes:

1) S&P & Dow down for 2008

2) Nasdaq up by at least 10% in 2008.

3) Terrible year for all things housing, but not quite a recession for the overall economy.

4) Online poker is legalized in the US and Naj/Cry leaves Manhattan to be a Thailand-based online poker pro.

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Author: CryingofLot49 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30662 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 12:20 PM
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3. Private colleges and universities will be free for 90% of the American population by 2018. Most of the Ivy League schools have eliminated all tuition and fees (room and board) and all student loans for families making less than $50,000 per year. This week, Harvard capped tuition and fees at 10% of income for families earning up to $180,000 per year.


This became the CW this week, not a 'crazy prediction.'

Like the rest though, even if I think some of them are beyond crazy!

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Author: stillwater9999 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30665 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 2:03 PM
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Maybe Pontiac should launch a car named "Oprah"? She has the more well known brand.

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Author: herfindolls Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30666 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 2:12 PM
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is this about the Fay Vincent piece in the WSJ? what i can't figure out about that piece is how he got away with claiming endowments are consistently earning 20% or more per year. Swensen's record of 16% per year is usually touted as the top long term record for an endowment manager. If that's the case I don't know how Vincent came to the following calculation...

"The endowments of these four institutions range from $1.7 billion at Amherst to $35 billion at Harvard, and the investment managers are getting annual returns well in excess of 20%." - Fay Vincent in WSJ

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110010985

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Author: alan81 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30670 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 4:13 PM
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5. Intel, with a market cap of $160 billion, will buy back $100 billion of its own stock over the next ten years. The share count will be unchanged. The stock price will be little changed..
I counter predict on this one. The new GAAP accounting rules have shut down lots of options, and if the stock stays flat they are not going to be worth much anyway. The trend has already reversed with dividends increasing and stock buybacks decreasing.
--Alan
comfortably retired thanks to INTC stock options...

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Author: valueguy88 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30676 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 5:54 PM
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6. Oil will rise to $650 per barrel by 2018, but production will never exceed its peak reached in 2005 – 2006. Contrary to some people’s beliefs, this will not cause the end of the world.

If you have synthetic oil derivates and environmental protection, why would oil trade so high? Who wants it? Are you assuming huge taxes imposed on drilling?

Wage gains will be a bigger engine for US economic growth in the next decade than home equity withdrawals were in the past ten years.

I've never understood this really... you're making an assumption about MEW. Yes, MEW has been juicing up our GDP growth and even GDP growth of other countries, but what is "economic growth"? Is it GDP growth? I guess that's a very philosophical debate... If one assumes MEW was "fake", are wage gains "fake" too? What do they achieve? More consumption? To me true economic growth is better defined [partially] by some of the other things you allude to: energy efficiency, environmental clean-up, fair & reliable trade, more pen education system.

Great list...

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Author: PebbledShore Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30677 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 6:21 PM
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Google didn't exist.

Ten years ago Google.com had just been registered as a domain name, had not even been incorporated as a business, and now the company is worth more then $200 billion.

Prediction:
Ten years from now Google's stock price will have crashed and they will have been acquired by a company that does not yet exist.

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Author: Tiddman Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30678 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 6:33 PM
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Speaking of technology, here's a little anecdote for you.

There is something called "Freecycle" which are discussion groups where people give stuff away. You post to "offer" stuff, and people respond to take it, and they show up at your house to pick it up. People give away everything from old books and clothes to unwanted groceries and computer equipment.

I am clearing out our storage room, so I'm Freecycling a bunch of stuff. One recent item was a bag of 7 pairs of used shoes from an estate. I posted the message on the Freecycle board. In about 8 minutes, I got a call -- apparently a guy was monitoring the board with his Blackberry while on the metro. He got in his car, plugged my address into his GPS navigation system, and was at my door in 5 minutes. Total time from post to handoff was less than 15 minutes!

Kind of freaky really...

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Author: PebbledShore Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30679 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 8:43 PM
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Wow, that is freaky. I've looked at Freecycle occasionally buy have yet to trade anything within a Freecycle community. I have heard about a few nasty stories of stalker types looking for retribution because of a bad trade, but I think those incidents are rare.

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Author: TMFRichDad Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30680 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 9:04 PM
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I have heard about a few nasty stories of stalker types looking for retribution because of a bad trade, but I think those incidents are rare.


How can you have a bad trade if its free in the first place?

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Author: ajaskey Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30681 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 9:22 PM
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There is something called "Freecycle" which are discussion groups where people give stuff away. You post to "offer" stuff, and people respond to take it, and they show up at your house to pick it up. People give away everything from old books and clothes to unwanted groceries and computer equipment.

My wife "Free Cycles" here in State College all the time. Hopefully she is getting rid of junk, but occasionally she brings stuff home. In the summer, I just drag it to the street on a nice day and put up my "Free Stuff" sign (recycled real estate signs work well). Within a day or two, everything is gone. If it is still there in a couple days, I assume it is really low grade junk and haul it to the dump. The wife posts on "Free Cycle" after I haul it out there, but many people are just driving buy.

I've gotten rid of old washers, dryers, refrigerators, and furniture. It is amazing how fast it goes from "how the hell am I going to get rid of this" to "wow, that was fast".

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Author: warrl Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30682 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/14/2007 11:44 PM
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My wife "Free Cycles" here in State College all the time. Hopefully she is getting rid of junk, but occasionally she brings stuff home. In the summer, I just drag it to the street on a nice day and put up my "Free Stuff" sign (recycled real estate signs work well). Within a day or two, everything is gone. If it is still there in a couple days, I assume it is really low grade junk and haul it to the dump.

Wrong attitude.

If the "Free Stuff" sign doesn't work, haul it back to the garage for a couple days and then put it out again with a sign that says "For Sale - $50".

THEN if it isn't gone within a couple days, you have really low grade junk.

Occasionally someone may even pay you for it.

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Author: Fuma102 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30683 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/15/2007 1:35 AM
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1) border control will still be a hotly contested issue

2) cancer vaccines will start to see mass appeal, making us wonder why mabs and/or chemo was ever used in the first place.

3) one of the best companies to come out of #2 will be a company that gets outsourced work from companies making these vaccines (ie, see synchross with apple, only several times better)

4) medical schools will start to shorten from 4 years to 3, considering PA's learn everything they learn and more in less than that.

5) the "subprime" bubble turns into one more blib on the financial map- along with the tech bust, biotech bust, and sept 11.

6) buffett takes a dirt nap, berkshire spirals as its newest face does not have the quirks of WEB. people openly wonder about the geico gecko's usefulness in advertising.

7) people will still gripe about heathcare, even though nothing has changed in 8 years of democratic congress, followed by 2 years of repub congress. c'est la vie dans la USA.

8) colleges will just begin to go out of business. in an effort to circumvent this, a new higher degree will be made up. like, a QaD in law. Not surprisingly, other schools will follow suit charging 75K for only 10K worth of education, claiming graduates earn "up to 1 mill/ yr". even though these folks could get that anyway based off their experience.

9) the US will not have country wide wireless internet, mostly because of the numerous early glitches seen in SF's attempt back in 2013.

10) pizza & beer is still the featured cuisine of fantasy football drafts.

11) sex will still sell. Hannah Montana will be the latest celeb that Star magazine loves to trash due to her alcohol & cocaine habits. Paris Hilton thankful fades into the background. Britney spears gets knocked up for the 6th time.

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Author: FatBrainMartian Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30687 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/15/2007 3:33 PM
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1. RedNeckRoleModel retires from his money management practice, saying that 40% a year was good enough but marrying and divorcing four of his former clients was starting to wear him down.

2. MDCigan is running a chain of strip clubs with large blessed women who provide stellar investment advice

3. Berkshire Hathaway is run by howardroark and achieves a market capitalization of 1 trillion

4. BenGrahamMan is revealed to be the long-lost love child of Bruce Springstein and TMFKitKat.

5. CryingofLoft49 moves to Florida near a beach and can't believe he ever lived in New York.

6. MadCapitalist makes a ton of money as the the founder a social networking board called YeeGadsHarmony but gives it all away to be a pro football referee.

7. GoCanucks runs a chain of women's apparel shops (Up a Creek) and carefully manages cash flow and capital expenditures but must deal with inane investor relations calls.

8. TMFMrCHW becomes a doctor of something and changes his name to DrTMFMrCHW.

9. Eighttrack, elan, and Tiddman form a law firm called: TrackLanMan (hey, you expected something funny with number 9?)

10. It is revealed that incrementalguy, greenmartian, fatbrainmartian, and spocksbrain are each different people...

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Author: FatBrainMartian Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30688 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/15/2007 3:45 PM
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typo

3. Berkshire Hathaway is run by howardroark and achieves a market capitalization of 1 trillion but then it is revealed half of the equity in the company is invested in dying department stores and mortgage backed securities of MDC's strip clubs and the valuation drops to 800 billion

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Author: missash Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30689 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/15/2007 3:54 PM
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addendum: Donald Trump obtains the necessary permits to open a casino in NYC; buys the land and building now occupied by EVCI's Interboro Institute; EVCI's stock, mired in the pink sheets, surges skyward.

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Author: TMFWBuffettJr Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30690 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/15/2007 4:18 PM
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RR,

I watched a documentary recently called BBC's Wild New World which contrary to its name spent a lot of time on the prehistoric animals of North America. It was interesting to see CG lions roaming Alaska.

...now if we could just get back that woolly mammoth.

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Author: TMFWBuffettJr Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30691 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/15/2007 4:22 PM
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apparently a guy was monitoring the board with his Blackberry while on the metro. He got in his car, plugged my address into his GPS navigation system, and was at my door in 5 minutes. Kind of freaky really...

Yeah, my friend was posting on his blog using his cell phone (iPhone) while getting his oil changed off of Jiffy Lube's free wi-fi. His post was "the future kicks ass."

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Author: Mungerish Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30692 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/15/2007 9:03 PM
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1. Once highly paid Financial Professionals and Analysts positions are commonly outsourced to India and other developing countries. Numerous Columbia Graham and Dodd MBA’s relocate to far flung areas of the world teaching the art and science of value investing. Some students are arrested and imprisoned after acting on the encouragements of one well known instructor. It seems they were inspired to regularly offer to purchase a controlling interests in shop keepers stores for 1/2 the value of the cash in the till.

2. Some Mungerish children regularly vandalize father’s home as retribution for encouraging them into a career path destined to ever declining wages

3. High Speed Broadband is now largely delivered wirelessly with hi quality video on demand. Mungerish no longer has a Comcast.net email address and interacts with other value junkies via Wi-Fi video conferencing headset

4. Oil, natural gas and other fossil fuel businesses are viewed as mature, declining industries. It seems that huge price increases in 2007-8 led to numerous economically viable technological innovations that are now being produced. I’m betting on just charging my car from my cell phone

5. Jim Crammer is denied parole for his role in Federal Reserve price fixing scam of 2007.

6. Homes are now largely financed via unsecured, but co-signed loans issued by First Marblehead, a government sponsored enterprise. Apparently, Congress passed legislation in 2009 which reset all mortgage interest rates to FIXED ARMS, which are downwardly adjusting interest rate mortgages yielding 50 basis points above the Washington District Cost of Funds ( an index based on the election cycle). MBS investors of yesteryear have all committed suicide or filed for bankruptcy and there is no longer an MBS, CDO or CLO market.

7. Ted Kennedy drowns in sailing accident caused by wind farm turbine gone haywire off Nantucket

8. All Pharmaceuticals are now produced in India by corporate shells largely immune to the vagaries of the trial lawyers. Pfizer trade ruins numerous value investors year in 2008 when it is discovered that Viagra raises LDL levels to the point of causing congestive heart failure. Lipitor is of no help

9 Warren Buffet spends 25 Billion to be cloned. Berkshires assistant C.I.O seeks new type of bio therapy to deal with chronic depression.

10. Genenberk, (a recent IPO based on reproducing a laboratory version of the Oracle from his DNA left on a cherry coke) declines 90% on the news.

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Author: howardroark Big red star, 1000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30695 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/16/2007 2:13 AM
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1. Felicity Moe's Stock Will be Halted as it Hires Fergi Mac to Oversee Financial Restructuring in the Wake of Frappucino Mocha Subpoena. The Government Sponsored Enterprise Federal Eviction Institute for Counseling Mortgage Owners will be investigated for continuing to bill governments agencies Freddie Ma_ and Fannie Mae for its mortgage remediation services long after delinquent homeowners have moved out. Felicity Chairman Mozilo announced the hiring of recently created GSE Federal Enterprise Restraining Government Interference in Mortgages to defend the company against the spurious claims. Fergi Chairman McDaniel will state that the Federal Regulatory Agency of bi-Partison Patriots Championing Mortgage Owners of America was overstepping its jurisdiction. GSE bond spreads will be unchanged on the news.

2. Charles T. Munger Will be Detained on Suspicion of Attempted Battery, but Whitney Tilson Will Decline to Press Charges. Three Hundred and Fifty Seven Thousand members of Tilson's hourly Valuekindlegram recipient list will descend upon Omaha for the Berkshire Annual Meeting. When the eleventh consecutive questioner asks Buffett whether he considers himself more of an Ackmanian or Biglarian, Munger will turn a strange shade of red, holler DHANDO! and fire a moderate sized cantaloupe in Tilson's general direction.


3. Restoration Holdings Will Be Reprimanded by the SEC for Filing a Four Page Form 10-K. CEO Belicheck will defend the reticence to provide detailed financial information by staring angrily at reporters. Company spokesperson David Lereah will again deny rumors that non-executive Chairman Eddie Lampert has been secretly working at a Blockbuster Video in Plymtpon, Wyoming since then-named Sears Holdings acquired the chain in 2010. Rumors will fly that the largest retailer in America is in talks to swap 14 Winn-Dixies, 6 Harold's Stores, and a 1989 Paul Harris Annual Report for a cashless collar tied to Indonesian swap rates.

4. Self-Published I-Tunes Single WatWeWunceWere Will Go Platinum Sending Most Readers of This Post into a Severe State of Old Age Despair. The techno-rap will be a loose parody of "We Didn't Start the Fire," waxing nostalgiac about the olden days, including such one liners as "Go old skool like Shia Lebeouf (Not Junior!)" and
"Grandpa's Qweyboard is Qwertylicious."

5. Hugo Chavez will replace John Edwards on Wal-Mart's Board of Directors. After nine years of dedicated service, Edwards will declare his campaign to fight the battle against worldwide domination from the inside a success. He will move on to conquer the tyrannical elitism of Four Season Hotels and Resorts as Internal Qualilty Ambassador. Chavez will post several video responses to accusatory youtube entries claiming he has sold out since his ouster from office. He will retain his Board Seat at Jakks Pacific.

6. The Sovereign Fund of Abu Dhabi will be Accused of Fixing the Florida State Lottery. Despite owning only 4.9% of the long since privatized lottery in the form of unconvertible, interest-free, pay-in-kind, covenant-free, redeemable warrants, Abu Dhabi will be fully blamed by Governer Spurrier when the same seven year old boy is found to have won four consecutive powerball draws. Florida will respond by issuing an excise tax on catastrophe insurers and reselling its lottery rights to Neteller founder John Lefebvre.

7. Yahtzee Will Enjoy the Greatest Brand Revival Since Ocean Pacific. Amazon.com's effort to expand its brand further into China will spark a massive windfall for Hasbro as its Intern in Charge of Global Branding misspells Yangtze with the Chinese National Internet Registry. Jeff Bezos will project a Hologram of himself down from the moon to sign "Customer Centric" to mark the occasion.

8. Charles T. Munger Will be Detained on Suspicion of Attempted Battery, but Whitney Tilson Will Decline to Press Charges. Three Hundred and Fifty Seven Thousand members of Tilson's hourly Valuekindlegram recipient list will descend upon Omaha for the Berkshire Annual Meeting. When the eleventh consecutive questioner asks Buffett whether he considers himself more of an Ackmanian or Biglarian, Munger will turn deep red, holler DHANDO! and fire a moderate sized cantaloupe in Tilson's general direction.

9. Patrick Byrne Will Suffer a Controversial Defeat in his Bid to be Elected Surgeon General of the United States. When Clyde42661 posts a message on an obscure Drugstore.com product feedback page asking whether Surgeon General is an elected office, Byrne will immediately file suit for defamation in Federal Court again John Mackey. Vince McMahon, Byrne's campaign manager and running mate, will host the ensuing conference call.

10. The Mitchell Report Will Be Officially Voided by Major League Baseball Commissioner Eliot Spitzer. Spitzer will clear all players implicated in the historic steroid scandals to free up MLB's elite investigatory unit to go after park concession vendors for possible anticompetitive pricing. Roger Clemens will hold a press conference to declare his indignation at the ten year witch hunt before his start that evening.

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Author: PKnudsen Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30701 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/16/2007 7:50 PM
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Who rec'd this whack?

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Author: valueguy88 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30702 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/16/2007 9:19 PM
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A special commission headed by then-widely-respected former president George W. Bush, will recommend that the balance sheet of Government Sponsored Enterprise Zebri Mae (Zoologists and Biologists Rebuilding Most of America's Ecology) should be prevented from expanding further, and that instead, the private market for animal-backed securities should take the lead in financing North American safari development. A public company named Freedom Biology Rebuilders (NYSE: FBR) will engage in a 2-year bonanza of IPOing various SITs (Safari Investment Trusts), each of which will specialize in securitiziting non-conforming Zebras loans. Conforming zebra: weighs more than 660 lbs, has less than 417,000 hairs, full health documentation.

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Author: TMFWBuffettJr Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30704 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/17/2007 4:58 AM
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Nice balloons, HR! Apparently, the Fool felt you needed even more icons next to your name.

Happy Foolish anniversary,
WBJ

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Author: RedneckRoleModel Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30735 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/18/2007 3:10 AM
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abFatPitch: Everyone in the Studio Audience of America will be given a new Chevy Malibu personally subsidized by Madame President.


Seriously, that may have been the funniest post of the year. Nicely done!

valueguy88:
If you have synthetic oil derivates and environmental protection, why would oil trade so high? Who wants it? Are you assuming huge taxes imposed on drilling?


Oil may trade so high because the cost of marginal production in ten years is likely to be several hundred dollars per barrel. This would represent a continuation of today's trends, in that the annual increase in the cost of production is itself increasing (the rate of growth itself is increasing). Today's truly marginal barrel of supply is coming from places like deep (really DEEP) offshore Brazil, and oil sands, where costs are almost certainly above $65 per barrel once you factor in capital, opex, and the inevitable delays and complexity of such hard to locate resources).

Further, oil may trade at elevated levels like this even in the presence of a biofuels market because the biofuels market will still be scaling up to replace the unmet demand that will exist in a world that can only produce 70 million barrels per day of oil. The good news is that the biofuel production is likely to be a matter of deploying, at large scale, an infrastructure that can churn out product at low cost relative to what oil will cost then. Refining biofuels is likely to be one of the most profitable businesses in the world. That is, until rising capacity finally catches up with demand, after which it will simply be a low margin commodity chemical business. All investors in biofuel stocks will say they see this coming, and all will say they plan to sell out long before the end. Very few actually will.

valueguy88:I've never understood this really... you're making an assumption about MEW. Yes, MEW has been juicing up our GDP growth and even GDP growth of other countries, but what is "economic growth"? Is it GDP growth? I guess that's a very philosophical debate... If one assumes MEW was "fake", are wage gains "fake" too? What do they achieve? More consumption? To me true economic growth is better defined [partially] by some of the other things you allude to: energy efficiency, environmental clean-up, fair & reliable trade, more pen education system.

Another good question. I was a little sloppy there. MEW increased consumption but didn't really contribute to an increase in the productive capacity of the economy.

Fuma102:Sex will still sell. Hannah Montana will be the latest celeb that Star magazine loves to trash due to her alcohol & cocaine habits.

Indeed. It has not escaped my notice, when thinking about how things will change in 2008, that both Hayden Panettiere and Emma Watson will be 18. This was, however, outside the scope of my post until you mentioned it. Thanks for allowing me to point out these important facts.

FatBrainMartian:RedNeckRoleModel retires from his money management practice, saying that 40% a year was good enough but marrying and divorcing four of his former clients was starting to wear him down.

Not likely. The affair with my client fizzled out, though I'm glad to say that she is still a client, so all is not lost. I have now just started to date a musician whose student debt, if expressed as a positive number, would be quite a bit larger than my average client's account size. So I don't think there's any risk of mixing business with pleasure here. And for a guy whose main skill in life is knowing 25 different ways to calculate return on invested capital, dating a girl who can play me her own compositions on the violin has a lot to recommend it.

Incidentally, your post did inspire me to think of a new crazy prediction. 11.) Some lawyer will introduce prenup contracts that contain full ratchet anti-dilution protection for the wife. Thus, if a man and woman split up, the man remarries and then divorces again, Ex-Wife #1 still receives 50% of the man's assets and income, while Husband and Ex-Wife #2 must split up the remaining 50%. I've never been married or divorced, so they may have this already. But if they don't, it's coming. Be afraid. Very afraid.

Best,
Redneck

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Author: CryingofLot49 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30738 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/18/2007 1:48 PM
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I have now just started to date a musician whose student debt, if expressed as a positive number, would be quite a bit larger than my average client's account size.
And for a guy whose main skill in life is knowing 25 different ways to calculate return on invested capital, dating a girl who can play me her own compositions


This development has exciting implications!

on the violin has a lot to recommend it.

Oh. So anyway...


I thought Canada's oil sands were profitable @ $45, not $65. That would seem to indicate costs are <$45. Am I wrong? Have costs jumpeed $20/bbl?

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Author: RedneckRoleModel Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30745 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/18/2007 3:02 PM
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I thought Canada's oil sands were profitable @ $45, not $65. That would seem to indicate costs are <$45. Am I wrong? Have costs jumpeed $20/bbl?

Yes, costs have jumped that much. Most projects currently in production were put into production in 2005 or before, meaning they were under construction from 98 to 05 or so. Most of these facilities are in fact profitable, and generate 20% ROIC with oil at $45 or so. But costs, both capex and opex, have jumped so much in the last few years that anything now under construction, or worse yet, planned to start construction in the future, is dependent on oil staying above $65 per barrel. I don't have any documents on hand at the moment to cite, but I've seen that number in lots of different sources recently. I believe the Chairman of CNQ gave a speech citing that $65 number a few months back. If the proposed royalty changes in Alberta go through, and oil sands companies want to make their historic returns on invested capital, the cost per barrel will likely exceed $75. Which means that they'll still be profitable, but it's important to realize that while Saudi Arabia still has old fields where oil costs $5 to produce, new capacity is coming online at $65 to $75 cost per barrel, making it really hard for prices to go below that level for any prolonged period.

Best,
Redneck

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Author: ltpj Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30746 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/18/2007 3:31 PM
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I thought Canada's oil sands were profitable @ $45, not $65. That would seem to indicate costs are <$45. Am I wrong? Have costs jumpeed $20/bbl?

Back in 2004 when I was looking hard at Canadian Natural Resources, including lots of correspondence with their IR dept., they were hoping to bring in the Horizon project at ~$35K/boed. I thought that was a mite rich because it was considerably higher than their current valuation, but they were excited at the prospect. They were benchmarking WTI at US$33/bbl and an exchange rate for the loonie of 1.33:1 at the time.

Regards,
Tom - No, of course I didn't buy CNQ. <Major forehead slap>

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Author: CryingofLot49 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30749 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/18/2007 5:44 PM
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I thought Canada's oil sands were profitable @ $45, not $65. That would seem to indicate costs are <$45. Am I wrong? Have costs jumpeed $20/bbl?

Yes, costs have jumped that much. Most projects currently in production were put into production in 2005 or before, meaning they were under construction from 98 to 05 or so. Most of these facilities are in fact profitable, and generate 20% ROIC with oil at $45 or so. But costs, both capex and opex, have jumped so much in the last few years that anything now under construction, or worse yet, planned to start construction in the future,


Thanks for the answer!

Caveat Emptor: You could have made them same argument about land prices, housing costs, construction costs, and the jumps in opex and capex and hiring for HBs until very recently.

Costs don't rise forever in a straight line is my experience. The global economy is slowing down and I am doubtful that oil workers are immune, but you may be right and I am far from expert on this topic.

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Author: jkm929 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30750 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/18/2007 6:52 PM
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There will be no ethanol production in the US by 2018.

Not if Congress has its way. From today's WSJ Evening Wrap E-Mail:

As the holiday break looms, Congress passed a landmark energy bill tightening fuel economy rules for cars and dictating lofty goals for alternatives such as ethanol.

The bill, which was approved by the Senate last week, passed the House 314-100 today and now goes to President Bush to be signed into law. The administration has indicated the president will apply his John Hancock at the Energy Department Wednesday. Once signed, the bill would become the first mandated increase in fuel economy in 32 years, boosting auto makers' mileage requirement to an industry average of 35 miles per gallon by 2020, up 40%. The bill also goes beyond auto engines, making an ambitious bid to spur demand for alternative fuels. In a boon to farm states, it aims for a roughly fivefold increase in ethanol usage, to 36 billion gallons a year by 2022.


jkm929

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Author: ziq Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30778 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/20/2007 1:10 PM
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"Modify #2: By 2018, the US will produce or consume only miniscule amounts of ethanol *for energy*.

(I expect a certain more traditional use to remain popular, and synthetic gasoline would not be an acceptable substitute.)"

Like imbibing, for example.

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Author: opedbyme Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30797 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/20/2007 10:34 PM
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you are as crazy as your predictions
I predict absolutely none of your predictions will come to fruition.
opedbyme

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Author: stefaith Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30805 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/21/2007 6:28 AM
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<There will be no ethanol production in the US by 2018.>

Agreed. Ethanol production is a stupid idea in the first place. However, by 2018, the 'global warming' syndrome will be abandoned anyway because a change in solar activity will bring on a cooling spell, and the politically correct crowd will start worrying about a new ice age.

<Oil will rise to $650 per barrel by 2018, but production will never exceed its peak reached in 2005 – 2006>

Yes to the price, because demand from the Far East will grow exponentially. Production from conventional sources will hold or drop, but there will be a huge increase in oil produced from oil sands, shale and coal. Synthetic fuel from plant matter will remain a laborotory curiosity.

< The global labor arbitrage will be over by 2018.>

Probably right in principal but a decade too early. It will take more than 10 years for Chinese wages to approach US levels.

I'd like to add my own crazy predictions.

11. China will implode due to internal strife when the rapidly escalating middle class will refuse to accept growing prosperity as substitute for freedom. The resulting strife will set back Chinese growth, and world prosperity by 5 years.

12. India will work out its infrastructure problems and abandon the last vestages of its socialist heritage, and will take its place as a word industrial leader.

13. A Muslim terrorist attack in Europe will provoke a serious reaction. Europe will abandon politically correct policies, and will elect proto-fascist governments instead.

14. The most significant development of the next decade will be completely unexpected, and hence will not be on anyone's list of the most significant develoments of the next decade.

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Author: ChunkLove One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30806 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/21/2007 7:25 AM
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1. Goldman Sachs will post record profits after buying deep out of the money puts on its own stock.

2. International organized crime will writedown billions of dollars in stolen identity assets as inflated FICO scores crash and burn.

3. A hedge fund manager will bet all his fund's assets on a single game of roulette, win and receive massive inflows.

4. The price of freedom will be removed from the CPI due to volatility.

5. Low cost ammo manufacturers: the secular growth story of the year

6. A bank in San Bernandino will give away a chance to win a free home to anyone opening a new account with more than $5k.

7. Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman will win the Noble Peace Prize after investing heavily in Africa and then successfully negotiating for debt forgiveness from the international community.

8. US Americans will be unable to do so because of such as the Iraq as we build up our future.

9. Roomba, the robotic vacuum cleaner, will achieve self awareness and turn on its human masters.

10. The Washington Redskins will win the Super Bowl

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Author: herfindolls Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30808 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/21/2007 10:25 AM
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number 9 is far more likely than number 10.

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Author: AStrayElmGod Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30811 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/21/2007 11:52 AM
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Donald Trump will end up in prison where he belongs.

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Author: Threedollarbill Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 30841 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/23/2007 4:34 PM
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1. The first flying cars will be invented and marketed, the reliance of gasoline is a thing of the past. I hope.

2. Genetic engineering will have developed healthier lifestyles eliminating the need for insurance companies, yahoo.

3. Nano machines will be invented to recreate and regenerate the environment reversing any global warming, oil spills, etc.

4. Congress will be dismantled due to a new peace initiative and enforced by L. Ron Hubbard's robotic police force.

5. The more things change, the more they stay the same--beer prices soar, buy more stock in Bud. :)

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Author: PebbledShore Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 39944 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 1/21/2011 6:51 PM
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Me on 12/14/2007:

Ten years ago Google.com had just been registered as a domain name, had not even been incorporated as a business, and now the company is worth more then $200 billion.

Prediction:
Ten years from now Google's stock price will have crashed and they will have been acquired by a company that does not yet exist.


* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110121/ap_on_re_us/us_google_sh...

Google is richer than ever, but it's not as cool as it once was.

Facebook boasts 500 million members who share 30 billion links, notes and photos each month — data that Google's search engine can't completely index. It's so influential that 26-year-old founder Mark Zuckerberg was just named Time's person of the year, and a movie about the company's early days is a contender for best picture at the Oscars.

Twitter, Groupon and Foursquare, all hard-charging and potentially game-changing services, are additional thorns in Google's side, raising worries that the online search leader may be losing the competitive edge that turned it into the Internet's most powerful company.


* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Well, Facebook existed in December 2007, so I may have got that part wrong, but I still have another seven years for the intention of my prediction to come true after Facebook buys Google.

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Author: mklein9 Big gold star, 5000 posts Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 39945 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 1/21/2011 8:03 PM
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Well, Facebook existed in December 2007, so I may have got that part wrong, but I still have another seven years for the intention of my prediction to come true after Facebook buys Google.

I have no doubt something not too far from your predictions will come true.

-Mike

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Author: Goofyhoofy Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 39946 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 1/21/2011 8:48 PM
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but I still have another seven years for the intention of my prediction to come true after Facebook buys Google.

I have no doubt something not too far from your predictions will come true.


I'm not sure why. These are two very different businesses serving two entirely different functions. I never use Facebook, but I use Google daily, sometimes hourly. My wife only occasionally uses Google, but spends endless hours on the Facebook pages.

Is Facebook somehow going to put Google out of business? How? Just because they have more screen time than Google? I don't see it, I see room for two different businesses both pursuing the same end (of advertising) dollars. TV didn't put radio out of business, and radio didn't put newspapers out of business - they just fractured the advertising market, but everybody learned to live with it over time, and even as the industries matured over decades, there was room for all. (Newspapers may have faded, but they didn't become subcorps to radio or TV groups, did they?)
 


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Author: ClientNine Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 40920 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/13/2011 1:18 AM
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7. The Euro will collapse from $1.50 to below $0.60, driven by the profligacy of Italy. As the country continues to rack up huge debts in a currency they cannot print, Italy will hold the ECB hostage: either allow the currency to drop, or Italy will withdraw from the Euro and reissue all their debt in new, inflated Lira. The ECB, terrified of the exposure of Continental investors to mountains of potentially bad Italian debt (bought because it offered 30 bps of spread over German debt!), will capitulate. The chief victims: sovereign wealth funds who were desperate to diversify out of the dollar when the Euro was at $1.50.

So the Euro hasn't collapsed yet. Still, I don't think it's untoward to take a bow on this one.

C9

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Author: ClientNine Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 40921 of 41315
Subject: Re: Ten Crazy Predictions for the Next Ten Years Date: 12/13/2011 1:26 AM
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5. Intel, with a market cap of $160 billion, will buy back $100 billion of its own stock over the next ten years. The share count will be unchanged. The stock price will be little changed.

So far, Intel has bought back a little over $19 billion of stock. Intel closed at $27.16 on December 13, 2007. Tonight it closed at $24. Including dividends, the total return has been about 0.05% annualized.

C9

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