Well, someone has finally seen the value in throwing the current mangement group out and making some money with this baby. Basically a good company, but the senior guys are raping the reserves and the PH's are getting the shaft. Nationwide will really do a fine job of running this deal, and they need the volume.Let me know what you think. Flogger3
Has anyone done a study of the value of the company? Is this a good price at $47.00 cash? We have participated in Allied Group for a number of years through their DRIP, and have been very satisfied with the returns, however, I don't know whether this is a fair price for the company as a whole? lbolt
Sure seems like a prmium price, but Nationwide needs the distribtuion Allied brings.
You wrote:<We have participated in Allied Group for a number of years through their DRIP, and have been very satisfied with the returns, however, I don't know whether this is a fair price for the company as a whole?>I have also owned Allied Group for some time (1992) and have been accumulating shares through their DRIP. Are you saying that you are skeptical of $47 as a fair price. If so, I agree! During the time I have owned this company, my returns exceed 100% even with many later optional purchases through the DRIP. Based on this company's track record of earnings growth and total return to shareholders, I am not sure that $47 is a fair price when it was recently trading at 33 or so.
You wrote: <Are you saying that you are skeptical of $47 as a fair price. If so, I agree! >We have never studied the company with a comparison to other insurance industry mergers and buyouts. I have not had time to do so yet. Until I am able to do so I will not convinced that this is the best price available for the company. However, it should be noted that A.G. Edwards Analyst downgraded the stock today.
One question I have is whether or not Allied could survive in the market without new capital. The insurance market is very competitive and there are too many companies chasing a no-growth consumer marketplace. Seems to me this may be a very good deal for the shareholders and the ESOP, whose values may triple by my calculations. Since they hold a bunch of the stock, the employees may take the offer. Wouldn't you?
On the other hand, Allied has a lot of individuals, DRIP investors, investment clubs and ESOP participants among their shareholders. Those shareholders tend to be more loyal than investors who sell as soon as the stock price hits a "target." If the board of Allied recommends against the tender offer, (and some of the newsbites seem to suggest they might) I think there is a good chance that many of these investors will go along with the board and not take the offer. I am also wondering if this is just the beginning of some sort of bidding war when other big fish begin to think the company is in play. That is another reason I am not sure that $47 is enough.
I would agree but why haven't the "arbs" bid the price up to the offer price? I don't see anyone else offering more than 47. The outside Board members will have to do the fiduciary thing, as will the ESOP trustees, so it may go smoother than you think. Nationwide has made a pretty sweet offer to the ESOP members, and has agreed to make the mutual shareholders better than they got the first time, so why would they vote against?Still looks like a good deal to me. Guess Allied has to wait until the 2nd to respond. Should be interesting.
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