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Author: PoliceJockey Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35392  
Subject: Re: "Long Bond" - buying and rolling Date: 2/12/2006 2:36 PM
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Thanks much to Paul, Lokicious, and Wendy (and, wow, what a great FAQ-bie for the newbie, 2old).

I really didn't expect such a quick response since I myself am often unable to access the boards in a regular fashion.

The genesis of my question derived from reading one of the essays in John Mauldin's new book, Just One Thing, which includes essays about all sorts of investment ideas from all sorts of investors. Gary Shilling's chapter on the long bond posits that it will eventually drop to about 3% over the next several years, which he thinks represents the bottom. His view, which he "backs up" with lots of graphs and tables, of course, bucks the trend and is based on essentially a deflationary thesis. He supports his thesis by describing such forces as global restructuring, Central Bank worry over inflation, super-cheap mass retailing worldwide, deregs, globalization-fueled excess supply, and, my favorite, US consumers switching from borrowing and spending to saving.

I must admit that I like contrarian ideas, though that does not mean I apply them indiscriminately (or at all). The idea that the US consumer would save, too...geez, that should have been a red flag to his whole argument!

Thanks again for all of your intelligent responses and fft,

PJ

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