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Author: TMFBreakerTinker Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 3179  
Subject: Re: now 'n later Date: 7/6/2007 5:08 PM
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That about sums it up for me. I have often, repeatedly, time and tiem again, made some incredible trades buying in at bottoms and seeing the stock jump 30% or more in just a few days, but in all those trades, I could never commit more than 10-15% of my portfolio. Nice to have, but the real money is in investments you can commit a large portion of your portfolio to and just sit and wait. For example, Elan since Black Monday or QCOM, that sort of thing, buying when there is extreme crisis, but having sufficient faith and knowledge to just buy it, hold it, and not worry about it, with a large portion of one's portfolio because quite frankly you know what you have just because the market has gone utterly insane over irrelevant issues all of a sudden.

One just cannot do that with ACUS. One can indeed take a 2-5% position and say, what the heck. Lets see what it does. But try a 25 or 30% position here, I don't think anyone would be comfortable with that.

To me the primary weakness is not if Imagify works, it does, but whether or not sufficient clinical trials have been done to satisfy the messianic and out of control FDA who have taken it upon themselves to elevate themselves above and beyond there statutory mandates.

The clinical trials here involved, what 3 readers here? Readers specially trained to read Imagify images. Are three readers going to be enough to get over this FDA's hurdles? I honestly don't know.

So like say with telaprevir from Vertex, or Tysabri from Elan I cannot tell you that without doubt the drug works. Yes it works, but with only 3 specially trained readers one may still have some doubt.

The second hurdle is of course some of the issues raised here post-approval. Will the drug provide material benefit post-approval so as to be rapidly adopted. No one has clearly answered that question yet, which at this point in time is really a weakness. An irrelevant one I think at this point as approval or non-approval is the immediate game, but for the long-term very relevant. Since I invest for the long-term, although I might sell shorter term, that also makes it more suspect.

I don't like to dabble, but for those with 2-5% of their portfolio to say what the heck with, it could be a worthwhile 18 months to wait. The price may indeed go down but it seems to me that from this point, even if it does, approval will still be a triple or quadruple from here. But as TMFMiller states, one cannot devote a large portion of one's portfolio here, wich rules it out for me.

Tinker
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