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Author: peteyperson Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 5082  
Subject: Re: FIRE Benchmarks Date: 9/23/2003 5:49 PM
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That's not what the research shows.


Well no, that's really not true. Getting to $0 at the end of 30-years is definitely not a requirment or assumption of the REHP study. If you look at the pay out periods, what happens is that most of the time is that after 30 years the portfolio is worth several times its initial value. IIRC, about of 100 periods examined, there was only one period when the port wound up with less than its original value after 30 years.

So while the "uncontrollable slide to zero" you talk about is certainly possible, it doesn't seem very likely. Again using history as our guide, the most likely result is that after 30 years is that you wind up quite a bit richer than you started, in some cases a lot richer.
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