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Author: hockeypop Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35400  
Subject: Re: Whither the 10 Year Treasury? Date: 7/28/2009 7:13 AM
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The 10 year is an interesting time period precisely because it "may" be impacted by deflation, but almost certainly will be impacted in the long-term by inflation. That determination is above my paygrade.

But, I would keep in mind that many are looking at "real real" inflation statistics, namely before the adjustment. You can see those here:
http://www.shadowstats.com/

And Doug Short regularly refers to them in equities discussions here:
http://www.dshort.com/articles/2009/inflation-update.html

My point is that not only is 10 years somewhat a guess, BUT it's difficult to choose the measure you will use to define it.

Finally, we will possibly find another indicator today if dollars/treasuries remain the world's currency. I admit that for the first time I think we've started on a slippery slope to have that minimized as well. And, with fewer dollars available, rates will rise no matter the economic outlook.

Again, thanks for your posts!

Hockeypop
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