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Author: SailsFroya Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 286  
Subject: The Dangers of “Crystal Ball” Prophe Date: 4/19/2012 12:02 PM
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Folks,

Well, it appears Tata Motors [TTM] is moving higher today—on some fairly heavy volume. “Accumulation” has been the word of the day here, for some time now. So far, we’ve broken the 52 week high and, currently, continue to move upward. This is nice to see, especially prior to the release of the FY2011-12 Report. It shows that the expectations for the upcoming report are running high. I only hope we won’t be disappointed by some unexpected revelation(s).

Aside: What I write now is not intended as SPAM, but is offered simply IMHO and FYI.

Mostly, I depend on my personal research and on Motley Fool gleaned information. I find what is posted, and opined, on the MF boards is generally explained rather well. It’s important to “show your work on the board” as my teachers use to say.

I do read and post at Yahoo! as well, but there I’ve found far more “crystal gazing”. To wit, several recent Yahoo! posts have prophesied, without any explained rationale, that this stock would “hit $20/share before $30,” and “Watch it drop to $16 a share”. Such posts simply confirm the ever present danger of making investment decisions based solely on what individuals post to discussion boards. We must each “do the math”—as much as we are capable of doing—and come to decisions with which we are ultimately comfortable. Patience, in well positioned and managed companies, is key to long term gains in a market that is extremely unkind to small investors. Never be fearful, or critical, of “baby steps”. That’s how we all learned to walk.

TTM, of course, could have fulfilled those predictions quoted above; but “even a blind hog finds an acorn now and again.” Personally, I’d prefer to “learn from the mistakes of others” rather than my own ... I hope I’ve learned from both.

All by best, to everyone,


Sails
Position: Long & holding in four accounts: (Average c/s per account: $3.98; $30.28; $16.31; and $18.03). I did some swing-trades in the 2nd account ... but, only a few.
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