I recall the many years of these Motley Fool boards & forums being a vibrant & bustling place for common individual investors to gather and trade ideas. Since the Fool has shifted to a Premium Subscription Service business model these boards have dried up. What gives? I've been an avid follower & devotee of the Motley Fool nearly since its inception. I've been in and out of some of the paid subscription services.Is the Fool not making enough to market & emphasize the importance of its members continuing to talk to one another? Sure, we can write blog posts via our CAPS pages, and the discussions in the paid services are better than the general Boards....but please, either start marketing these Boards again or just remove them altogether. I hate wasting my time checking a Stock's board only to find it's been 4 months or longer since someone's even bothered to post.Anyhow...regarding INFN, there's a huge disconnect right now between how the Fool's community members are valuing the company and how the Market is. What gives? One group is very, very wrong. Reaching $4.65 a share today, despite strong Q3 earnings and a very optimistic conference call, with an anticipated Tier 1 customer announcement sometime in the next month and a half...we shouldn't be seeing the stock continue to decline like this. What is it the Market thinks it knows that we don't????
I agree totally about these boards, OJ. Consider QLIK, a RB pick with lots of CAPS players weighing in. Yet, there is not even a board started, only the RB board. I find that totally bizarre.Anyhoo, about INFN, I first have to agree with Duke. This is probably not the time to sell INFN. It is the time to (cautiously) accumulate. Of course, that could have been safely said anywhere between a share price of here and the $22 it was at 5 years ago. Doesn't matter what we think as much as it matters what the market thinks. But the market doesn't think, it reacts.We all hear the word "certainty" a lot these days. Well, the big money is looking for it, too. They aren't finding any in INFN. If it stays below $5 for long, it may trigger more selling by funds that can't hold stocks that cost less than $5 (though there aren't too many of those that buy small caps). In the final analysis, funds don't buy much that isn't going up (playing momentum), or has recently gone up (window dressing). My bet is that Duke will tell you it's part of the game. At $4.65 we are taking risk...a big risk. No risk, no reward. That's all it is and doesn't really have anything to do with the company, per se. If the share price sticks here, it will have formed a double bottom, signalling support. If it falls below, especially in an up market, which today was decidedly not; we'd have to see where the new bottom is. That would be the time to buy a 2nd 3rd if we believe in the company (and there is no reason not to right now- they've performed as promised). Otherwise, it's likely to stay in a $4.65 to $5.50 trading range until the next earnings report. If the earnings report is outstanding, the stock will pop. Do not buy more on the pop! Put in a limit order wherever in the range you'd like to gamble. It will likely drop back to $5.50 to $6. Then you can buy another 3rd with confidence (but without a promise). It's the way it is.For a demo on the previous paragraph, look at ZIP. Great report and a POP. I put my limit order in for $6.15. It may stop going down when it hits $6.20 and I won't own it (yet). Then I can decide if I want to buy it as it's going up, or just wait to see the next report. If next report is "meh," don't be surprised to see ZIP drop below $6. If the report is another blockbuster, you'll see it gather some steam. And of course, all of that is subject to surprises from competitors, real or imagined.That's the way I'm playing INFN...I bought in at 4.65 a couple of weeks ago. If it falls below, I'll look for the new bottom and buy more. I like the company and its prospects.-Randy
INFN is a risk stock, and the market seems to be profoundly risk-averse right now. I think many are re-jiggering their portfolios with one eye on Europe and the other on the so-called "fiscal cliff", and one thing that is clear is that stocks like INFN are getting hit hard, day after day. Remember, though, that the market value on the stock today does not alter the realities of the company behind the scenes. The same sales force is on the road, the same engineers are tweaking the next iteration, the same management team is strategizing forward, the same cash balance remains in their coffers. So, if you own the company through the shares you possess, then all is still fine. However, if you own only the stocks that fluctuate up and down in value then these are pretty nasty times indeed. Best! -- Steve.
Hey thanks for the replies Randy & Steve. BTW - I was very encouraged at the news today of CEO Tom Fallon doing some heavy insider buying at these levels. Fallon is seeing that the Market is undervaluing (maybe severely) INFN shares.I bought my first 3rd at the $5 level, I dipped in again at $4.55 today. INFN is a risk stock. But that hasn't deterred Fool's from giving it a 5 Star CAPS rating, for years on end. We've been waiting and waiting. The 'pop' is perennially around the corner. But a Tier 1 Customer in my opinion would be the catalyst that finally does it. It's as if Infinera has been working it's entire existence to get to this point, having a Tier 1 customer in its grasp. Let's hope Fallon's insider purchases are indicators of a profitable Tier 1 announcement leading to a great Q4 report.
hmmm...would insider buying be considered trading on inside information? Not that it's bad in this case, I just wonder if it is technically afoul of the rules. I think, reading between the lines, if there is a tier 1, it's probably not a Verizon. I'd like to see them keep growing the tier 2s as well. Tier 1 may give cred, but lots of tier 2 will obviously be good for the bottom line. The more the merrier! Re; CAPS 5 Star- Obviously it means nothing in this case. Could there be nothing worse than a long time 5 star turning into a 2 star, if you bought in because it was a 5 star? Those ratings are tools, but not such a perfect tool (just like all the rest). Imagine next November a MF post...maybe S&P is cruising, up 20% but INFN is crushing S&P, up 50%! Based upon the $4.52 52 week low (which will be the reference point), that means INFN is at a whoppin' $6.78!! I'll bet every person here thinks that $6.78 is a lousy price a year from now, but that's why we have to read the math. That's why we have to exercise patience. That's why we shouldn't chase performance. That's why it's all crap, unless it works out for us personally.Best of luck to us all, OJ!-Randy
I'm sure Fallon followed the law & procedures with the SEC in acquiring a hefty new position in INFN stock.The magnitude of this recent decline has left me dumbfounded. I hope you're right that it's mostly due to the sub $5 level forcing institutional investors to dump it, perhaps unwillingly.It seriously looks to me that buyers at these levels will be greatly rewarded.
Hey Randy, boy is the market risk averse! I have my own spreadsheet now tracking my rough 50% stake of Stalwarts vs my risky Rule breaker types, the other rough 50%. I completely re-jigged my portfolio over the last year and a half to increase risk as I tend to handle the adventure with a comfortable dose of apathy I find. Over that time, my Stalwarts, the likes of BRK-B, ATVI, EBAY, CNI and so on are up over 9% as an average. I like all my RB 'businesses' right now, wish I could say the same about their stocks, down between 22%-25% as an average over the same time, 15% of that pain occurred this week. INFN is the one I took a trading position in;I usually have one such small position on the go. There's blood in the streets for RB type investors and I'm well past the point of making changes. I never like to accept losses in times like these just so I can pick up someone else's losers and IMHO during emotional times in the market we shouldn't be altering our game plans. I feel that's the perfect tact to assure long term failure.FWIW,Duke,ATVI Ticker Guide
Have to agree with you, Duke. It's risk off right now. I think, as far as INFN is concerned, that now is not the time to buy or sell INFN. Since it fell through it's old bottom today, nobody knows where it will stop. It might be $3. It'll stop somewhere, go back up some, probably revisit that new low, then recover (if it's going to). There is no reason to worry about the company. They have plenty of cash and no debt. Patience, my friends. Let's stalk this one.On an unrelated note, Duke, somewhere in my posts is the story of my ATVI. I believe I bought a thousand shares at 40 cents (about twenty years ago). Good buy and hold story, huh? After the last 2:1 split, I now own two (yeah 2) shares...not thousand...just two (2). That's what reverse splits will do for you. But I'm hangin' on to those two. Where you gonna get such a great lesson for three hundred eighty bucks?-Randy
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