No. of Recommendations: 17
The differences between how dory36's online calculator and the REHP Excel spreadsheet handle the annual withdrawals for living expenses and investment expenses may have caused your confusion that "4% doesn't work all the time" for a 30-year pay out period.


I finally finally get it.

I am deeply sorry for falsely criticizing the study and for wasting so much of the board's time on this issue. The only possible saving grace here is that perhaps my public display of deep ignorance will cause a few others to realize that they do not understand the study as well as they need to and to spend some time getting more familiar with it in detail. I've said before that it is a valuable tool, and I am more convinced of that now.

You are right that my problem is that I was looking at the Dory36 calculator and was concerned to see years turn up where the safe withdrawal rate did not work. The descriptions of how the calculator differs from the root study were right there in front of me, so this is a weak excuse, but that's what happened.

For what it's worth, understanding for the first time that there really is a known safe withdrawal rate that applies in all circumstances makes me feel a little more comfortable with the idea of investing in stocks at today's prices. I'm not going to make any quick major shifts, but being able to know the worst case scenario in advance is an important plus in having the confidence to invest in a volatile investment class.
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