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Author: grier22 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 244  
Subject: Re: waiting Date: 1/5/2009 4:13 PM
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The economists Reinhart and Rogoff had a timely and interesting historical study on financial busts a year ago. Here's their more recent paper highlighting the aftermath of systemic banking busts. There's a summary in the 'frontline thoughts' letter below, with graphs for duration and depth of the downturn. This work makes the idea of a lasting low in 2009 seem a little optimistic.


http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo010209.pdf


And here's the paper itself, 11 pages and relatively clear


http://ws1.ad.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Aft.......
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