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Author: XMFBreakerTinker Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 659  
Subject: Re: insider purchase Date: 12/27/2012 2:05 PM
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The insiders do not know if the drug will create a survival benefit. But I will tell you that the Chief Science Officer will know if the drug is a dud, a lottery ticket that they are using statisticians to find data points that provide hope like so many small biotechs do with cancer drugs, or if the drug is really seeing efficacy in the field, and in comparison to the competitive environment.

That was not just small investment by the CSO.

As for the Director, depends how rich he is. Perhaps he just wanted to put some aside for a present to a client, or perhaps he really wants to be remembered, as he could have put that money aside in millions of other investment opportunities. He chose to put a large sum away in EXEL. Speaks for itself.

These are nothing but good things. No negative way to look at it.

Insiders are not perfect, but they do speak volumes, at least on issues as to whether or not there is a real deal going on here or not. The answer is yes, Cabo is a real deal. Whether it will close as want it to, that they don't know. But they know it is real.

Take the pain threshold test, I believe it is Comet I. All the data we have indicates that it will come out of that clinical trial with flying colors. With excellent pain data, which alone is an approved FDA end point for drug approval. There is no SPA with it, but that data point alone moves the value of Cabo way up.

The big doubt is the survial issue of which no explicit data exists, and the competitive environment, for which Cabo will be differentiated with the pain data and the bone data.

Tinker
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