No. of Recommendations: 1
The major alternative scenario would be a deflationary depression, which I wouldn't care to see at all.

The housing market is starting to cave in. Over the last three months, in my area anyway, prices on the under $100K market (mostly starter homes) have fallen about 8%.

The reason is the flip side of the housing boom. All these programs to get people into home ownership have succeeded to the point where the market is totally saturated in many areas. Since many of these buyers were lower-quality buyers based on credit, employment, etc., the recent recession (which has approached a depression in my area) has resulted in a substantial shakeout of weaker owners. Not only have bankruptcies hit historic highs, and still rising, but so have foreclosures on real estate. Sheriff's auctions in this area are at an all-time high and are expected to climb over the next few months. The consequence is that sales prices on homes are falling quickly.

How long for all this to work out? Years, I think. There is your long-term rate pressure; the risk of a deflationary depression remains, and could be imminent.
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