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Author: dstnewman Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 10874  
Subject: Re: Stock price Date: 12/3/2007 11:33 PM
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The million dollar question.

Immediate effect will be a large jump. Sirius closed at $3.75 today. If the deal is approved tommorrow, expect to see $5. If the deal is denied tommorrow, expect to see $2.25ish.

As far as XM, it closed today at $15.83. If the deal is approved tommorrow, expect to see $22-24. If the deal is denied tommorrow, expect to see $9

The problem with these prices is that they are not SUSTAINABLE. Sirius is not worth $5 with their financials right now. Combined? We will have to wait and see what they can do. You will see a rapid drop in price after the initial spike as merger cheer drops and investors start looking to the big picture at the financials. Expect it to drop from around $5 to back around $4, and hold there for about 6-12 months. Then, it will move based on combined financials and outlook.

Plan: MY plan (I am a rookie investor with no formal training in stocks) is that I have a sell on Sirius at $5.50 and a sell on my XM stock at $25. I will sell when they hit that number, lock in the profits, and wait for it to come back down before picking it back up. I still think the combined company is a goldmine waiting to happen, but I cannot resist taking some profits on the merger.
Just my thoughts
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