The more I think about the “V” shaped recovery story,the more I dismiss it. With any hint of a recovery interestrates will rise and choke off the main catalyst for thestrength the economy has had – residential housing andconsumer borrowing. Raising interest rates will also burycompanies that are using low interest rates as lifesupport. Does anyone really think the Fed would raise interest rates at the first sign of recovery? I don't, but I am just one guy. It does surprise me to already hear the CNBC groupies talking about a .25pts increase on the next fed meeting. I really don't see it. With the current money problems in Argentina and Japan no longer backing their money, the accounting problems (and I am sure there is much more of those to come) I suspect there is more market down to come but we don't see it yet. If the Fed put the breaks on too soon it could be a recipe for completely breaking the confidence of the investor/consumer.-Q
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