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Author: Rayvt Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 74815  
Subject: Re: They Got It Wrong Date: 6/19/2008 7:42 PM
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The most serious error was freezing the research at its original findings. The original findings suggest using a high stock allocation with annual rebalancing. This turns out to be a horrible choice for today’s retirees.

And the best choice for retirees in 1997 was to buy AMZN (at 1.50) and sell 3 years later (at 100). For retirees in 1990, to buy DELL (at 0.05) and hold it for 10 years and then sell it (at 50).
Or, heck, for retirees in the mid 1990's to buy dot-com stocks and hold them for 5 years.

This is an absurd argument. The question to be determined is not what's "best choice for today's retirees". The question is what's the best choice for retirees of any time, given that we do not know the future.

Knowing that selling shares at depressed prices causes failure,
That's why the conventional research & recommendations have a significant bond position---the bonds (and other fixed income assets) are there so that you don't have to sell equities when they are down.

a much better alternative would be to rely on dividend strategies that avoid the need to sell.
Dividends stocks have their place. In fact, I have a large portion of our assets in dividend-paying stocks. But you seem to be assuming that dividends will stay as they are--an unwarranted assumption. What is likely to happen when/if dividends are taxed more heavily than they are now? What will happen with dividends when/if they are taxed as ordinary income? Are you so oblivious that you haven't heard major politicians call for just that?

This turns out to be far superior to the liquidation strategies.
For all time????
Perhaps for recent history this is true, but I don't believe it has always been that way for the past---why would it be that way for all of the future?

Look, you can't just make a handwaving argument and expect it to be accepted. That is the *starting* point of the discussion, not the *ending* point. Where is the monte-carlo analysis? Where is the historical analysis? You have to back up your argument with data, no just mere assertion.
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