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Author: notehound Big gold star, 5000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 457182  
Subject: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 9:52 AM
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Gallup, at the "The Behavioral Economy," has proposed an alternative to the highly "adjusted" methods and formulas used to calculate the US unemployment figures.

Gallup suggests that the number of full-time employed Americans as a percentage of the total population would be more accurate and less subject to manipulation. "It is simple to calculate and thus, transparent to the public. It is based on 30,000 phone interviews a month. Most importantly, it provides insight into real job market conditions."

...a new employment measure is needed. Gallup has proposed such a measure -- Payroll to Population (P2P) -- the number of Americans employed full-time for an employer as a percentage of the U.S. population. This is a much simpler measure that has none of the numerous adjustments made to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. The P2P deteriorated slightly to 45.1% in September from 45.3% in August, suggesting the real jobs situation was essentially unchanged last month...

http://behavioraleconomy.gallup.com/2012/10/time-to-replace-...
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Author: rubberthinking Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405542 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 10:00 AM
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gallup is too political.....they are not supposed to be....but they are.....We live in a capitalistic society.....everything is for sale.....

Dave

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Author: Gingko100 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405544 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 10:24 AM
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It sounds more sensible and clear to me that what is reported now.

My basic problem with all the employment numbers (as I alluded to on another thread recently), is that it ignores those who aren't on payroll but are working, and these people can be working a lot. A sole proprietor who isn't an S-Corp can be contributing quite a lot to the economy, but doesn't show up anywhere - UNLESS they hire people as direct employees (and not contractors). Even then, their own contribution to their business is essentially ignored as far as this reporting is concerned. Unless - as I did last year - they convert to an S-Corp and pay themselves payroll.

As we move more and more to a contractor-based model, the payroll numbers will be less and less relevant. There are too may people working as 1099's, not W2's.

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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405549 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 12:35 PM
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<My basic problem with all the employment numbers (as I alluded to on another thread recently), is that it ignores those who aren't on payroll but are working>

The BLS (www.bls.gov) runs TWO employment surveys.

The one you refer to is the "Establishment survey," which includes 1/3 of employers. This is adjusted by the "Birth-Death" model as well as seasonality.

The other is the "Household Survey," which phones 60,000 households. This captures self-employed people, as well as correcting for people who have more than one job.

Please read my post on the latest employment numbers for more info and links.
Wendy

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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405550 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 12:38 PM
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<Gallup suggests that the number of full-time employed Americans as a percentage of the total population would be more accurate and less subject to manipulation.>

Too bad that Gallup is too lazy to do their homework and look beyond the MSM headlines. These numbers are already calculated and publicly available from the BLS and the Federal Reserve.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNU01000000
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USAEMPTOTQPSMEI

Wouldn't it be nice if professionals were actually...professional?
Wendy

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Author: goofnoff Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405552 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 12:41 PM
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Wouldn't it be nice if professionals were actually...professional?

Just like it would be nice if they taught anything in MBA programs other than being complete corporate suck ups.

A girl can dream.............

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Author: Gingko100 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405554 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 12:48 PM
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Thanks, Wendy! Very interesting clarification...

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Author: steve203 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405558 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 1:35 PM
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Just like it would be nice if they taught anything in MBA programs other than being complete corporate suck ups.

Seems the MBA programs should develop the skills needed in the corporate sphere. Based on my experience in companies large and small, SU is the most important skill, trumping intellegence and skill at a measurable function.

Steve...lacks the SU gene

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Author: RaptorD2 Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405574 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 6:02 PM
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gallup is too political

Sure thing. So let's leave it to the government which we KNOW isn't political. :)

Dan

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Author: solarae100 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405587 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 7:52 PM
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How about the number of people supported by each employed person. After all,what gains do we make if mom, dad and Jr. all have to have jobs to put food on the table. Used to be one bread winner per family.

Edy

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Author: katinga Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Ticker Guide Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405598 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 9:12 PM
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Does the BLS outsource the household survey? Who does the actual phoning/tabulating?

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Author: WendyBG Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Top Recommended Fools Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405609 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/8/2012 11:29 PM
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<Does the BLS outsource the household survey? Who does the actual phoning/tabulating? >

Either the BLS or the Census Department, I forget which. Why don't you look it up and tell METAR.

Wendy

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Author: katinga Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Ticker Guide Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405626 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/9/2012 10:35 AM
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Good idea, Wendy:

The U.S. Bureau of the Census collects data that is analyzed and tabulated by the BLS, which publishes them in a monthly periodical entitled Employment and Earnings. In addition, the June edition of the publication provides data on nearly 600 industries for which monthly data is unavailable. Many times, articles or even entire issues of Monthly Labor Review, published by the DOL, are devoted to workforce data. This publication compares the U.S. workforce to that of other countries, analyzes the workforce in particular industries, and looks at the workforce by subcategories including education, race, age, and ethnic group.

Read more: Workforce - benefits http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/encyclopedia/Val-Z/Workf...

So the BLS can "massage" the data, but can't fudge the survey process.

The latest Mauldin gram has some more background on the unemployment numbers. http://www.mauldineconomics.com/images/uploads/ttmygh/5996/p...

He lists the following skews:

1. Birth/death model: Big jump in "Part time for economic reasons"
2. Rise in young adult employment, the first time ever for a September, going back to 1980.

The chart above shows the sequential change in Non-Seasonally Adjusted jobs for the
20-24 year old cohort (aka those who normally are in student age) into the month of September going back to 1980, as represented by the Household Survey.

We have shown just 22 years of data, but believe us: in this data set, the September NSA jobs change has been negative every single year since the beginning of data collection. Except for 2012 (and considering the surge in temp-jobs for economic reasons, one can be certain that if indeed correct, all these young people obtained primarily part-time
jobs, if any).


3. Quoting Mish: Government hiring went up by 187,000 in September, something I failed to mention yesterday. Taking a closer look, seasonally-adjusted, the number of government workers went up by 681,000 since June (20.619 million in September vs. 19.938 million at the June low point). That's a lot of jobs (and jobs the economy can do without, in my opinion).

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Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405630 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/9/2012 10:55 AM
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3. Quoting Mish: Government hiring went up by 187,000 in September, something I failed to mention yesterday. Taking a closer look, seasonally-adjusted, the number of government workers went up by 681,000 since June (20.619 million in September vs. 19.938 million at the June low point). That's a lot of jobs (and jobs the economy can do without, in my opinion).


Seems to me I recall something about the month of September..... perhaps annual teacher hiring?

Tim

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Author: rubberthinking Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405641 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/9/2012 3:30 PM
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Sure thing. So let's leave it to the government which we KNOW isn't political. :)

Dan

Dan,

Gallup is doing just that.....their little blurb is a trail balloon which they wont actualize......so Gallup is leaving it to the government......

And as Wendy points out the govt is doing the specifics Gallup requested already.....

Dave

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Author: tim443 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405667 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/10/2012 9:22 AM
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Seems to me I recall something about the month of September..... perhaps annual teacher hiring?

Tim


This is nice to see? Everything seems to move slowly but finally in the right direction?


Tim

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/teaching-jobs-come-back-four-0...

Teaching jobs come back after four years of layoffs
By Annalyn Censky | CNNMoney.com – 3 hours ago.. .

After four years of layoffs, teaching jobs are finally coming back. Public school hiring rose this summer to its highest level in six years.


Local school districts added 79,000 education jobs this July through September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's the strongest summer hiring since 2006.


But even with the small hiring spurt, it's still not nearly enough to keep up with the growing number of students in American classrooms.


"The data suggest that at least we're not shedding a lot of teacher jobs any more. That's a really nice first step, but there's still so much to make up," said Heidi Shierholz, economist with the Economic Policy Institute.


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Author: katinga Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Ticker Guide Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405701 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/10/2012 2:25 PM
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I expect another bump to, say 7.6% in October. And if the trend continues, we will all have part time jobs or will have given up looking, and zero unemployment in a year.

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Author: markr33 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 405778 of 457182
Subject: Re: The Payroll-to-Population Percent Date: 10/11/2012 9:53 AM
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But even with the small hiring spurt, it's still not nearly enough to keep up with the growing number of students in American classrooms.

I don't believe this statement is accurate.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230373420457746...

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