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The polysilicon market is not unlike the AT&T/Lucent long distance business when Global Crossing and others started building fiber optic lines to serve the expected demand of the internet. Polysilicon has traditionally been supplied to the semiconductor industry at nice margins, but now photovoltaic solar panels creates a vast new market that is attracting much additional capacity and threatening traditional high margin pricing. It's a paradigm shift.

When the dust settles, the industry will consolidate into a few big players who adapted well. But others will get caught in the tsunami and go under. Their best assets will be purchased out of bankruptcy but investors will take a loss.

Can you correctly pick the winners in the midst of this transition?
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