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Author: breizhoneg One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 836  
Subject: Re: Where are the posts? Date: 12/14/1999 8:22 PM
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The press release about Haley's departure came out mid-day, and the stock promptly went up a half-point, then fell back by the close.

The silence has to do with the fact that INVX's lead times on its business reorientation (exit lead wires and convert to chip packaging) are apparently quite long. Thus, the company announced quite some time ago that it anticipated qualifying programs on chip packaging several quarters into the future with revenue beginning, if memory serves me, in Q1 2000.

In the meantime, until the company proves that it can make rich margins on the chip packaging business -- or not -- there really isn't much for the outside investor to say.

It does seem to me that if -- IF -- the company succeeeds in the chip packaging business they have embarked upon and if --IF -- they can live get over the fiasco of last years lawsuit -- don't ask, I don't even want to think about it -- THEN, they may ride up an expanding market of electronic applicances of various types. In this case, the company could be an excellent investment for 2000 and beyond. Indeed, that is what I have concluded, and hence have stayed long throughout the very long transition out of lead wires. At these prices, I figure that a relative modicum of success in chip packaging can pay off very nicely.

The precision manufacutring capabilities of the firm appear strong; the balance sheet can absorb the longer-than expected transition very easily. The problems are:
1. the time horizon for the next product cycle is long;
2. It is unclear to me how diverse chip packaging will be as a market. I understand that the market will be effectively much more diverse than lead wires that were, essentially a single product business. But if it turns out that the chip packaing they provide is limited to effectively a single product or two, then while the stock will rise with profits, we will continue to see a low multiple, as the risk of having all of your revenue eggs in one basket would merit.

But if they are able to feed into Set top boxes; wireless Palm VIIs, digital cameras, etc. etc., then we may see a very robust product cycle with sharply rising revenues, coming off this very depressed base. In that case, the stock could benefit from a revalution of the multiple as well as rising earnings.

At least so one hopes.

In the meantime, trust in INVX -- but keep your dollars invested in CISCO, CIEN, AMZN, JDSU, INTC, etc. etc.

Breizh
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