The problem with cyclicals is picking the bottom. Usually investors will anticipate recovery and bid the stock up, and then see it fall again if the earnings fail to improve. Hence, your best shot at getting the bottom is to accumulate the stock in a series of purchases.I see that Alcoa has a reported PE of 132 on Yahoo Finance. An indication of how bad the earnings are so far. And on Google Finance, the earnings seem to be continuing to decline. At least they are showing a profit for the last quarter.Whenever the recovery gets here, they have lots of recovering to do. But the recovery is slow, and Europe and China have a long way to go. And that is not to mention the US austerity program that begins next year according to some.