The retire early Withdrawal % spreadsheet has an error in it. If you use a series such as 30yr bonds which does not go back to the beginning of Shiller's data, the calculation assumes 0% return for those missing years. That under weights the bond % in the mix calculations and reduces the 100% safe return rate. If you add a 4.138% inflation indexed yield (todays treasury auction of 29 1/2yr indexed bonds) as an investment option, the best mix swings heavily towards bonds and the safe withdrawal rate increases to the mid 4%'s.It appears that if your goal is to survive one of the great depressions without reducing your income, you are better off investing a significant portion of your savings in inflation indexed bonds.
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