The returns should average out over the long run. This is what the S & P 500 10 year load adjusted return of 8.12% means right? Depends on the length of your run. The S&P can be sideways long periods of time. I believe you are using a 20 period, is that correct? To be on the safe side, you should look at all the 20 year rolling periods and find the minimum 20-year S&P return out of all those periods. Then use that number for your average.
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