No. of Recommendations: 2
The safe withdrawal rate means a portfolio will last 30 years with a 100% chance of not running out of money.

Actually, its a portfolio that would have lasted in the past 100% of the time. That doesn't mean that will be the case in the future. There's only about 100 years worth of data, so there's not even 4 completely independent 30 year periods to look at.

to the OP:
You're definitely taking a risk with such a long period and starting off close to the safe withdrawal threshold - before unexpected expenses I gather even? If I were you, I would consider one of two option.

First, maybe work for another 5 years or so, saving as much as you can in the process. If the market keep performing well, you can have a lot more. If the market doesn't, you'll be glad you didn't retire only to have to go right back to work anyway.

Second, you could consider only partially retiring. Doing something part time, or seasonal work for some modest pay. Something fun for you that's related to a hobby of yours maybe? Or even continuing in your current job with reduced hours. There's some people that work with me who are partially retired, working 3 days a week or so. This would significantly reduce the amount of money you need to take out of your accounts, bringing your withdrawal rate down to a percent or two maybe.
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