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Author: mishedlo Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 35367  
Subject: Re: A perfect storm for investing Date: 2/22/2004 6:26 PM
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The signs of the recovery are widespread including explosive economic growth the last two quarters. Certainly more valid than the politically motivated gloom and doom claptrap prevalent on this board.

ayduda


If 9% GDP did not produce ANY jobs what will?
Your "rosy forecast" is ignoring lots of problems

1) Bush's front loaded tax credits for Business expire in 2004. Conveniently timed for election purposes I might add. Most of this money has been spent already.
2) Inventories are rising.
3) Production has been rising but so have inventories. There will be a business lull unless sales pick up sharply.
4) The tailwinds of round after round after round of home refinancings has vanished. Unless they can force down LT rates, this stimulus is dead in its tracks.
5) Outsourcing continues unabated. We keep losing high paying and gaining low paying jobs.
6) The average job lost was $45,000 the average job gained is $35,000. That is not a good trend at all.
7) Debt levels are enormous and getting worse as wages are falling.
8) California and other states are in deep cereal trouble. Taxes will have to be raised or services cut or both. The latter will cost more jobs. Both will have the affect or reducing consumer spending.
9) Govt pork barrel spending can not continue unabated forever.
10) Auto sales suck
11) Energy costs are rising. That takes money out of consumer hands that they might have spent on other goods and services.
12) Election year stimuus can not continue forever.
13) Consumer confidence is falling and consumer spending is about the only think holding this economy up
14) jobs jobs jobs. Bush, Snow, and the labor secretary all took back statements made about employment increasing. Hmmm they are finally catching on it seems.

Now what exactly is so rosy about the economy anyway?
The most mammoth stimulus effort in the history of the world failed to produce jobs anywhere but India and China. What do we do for an encore?

Mish

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