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Author: jandctl One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 166  
Subject: Re: UPL Continues to Perform Date: 8/26/2011 1:02 PM
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The stock fell on the Q2 earnings call. Why? I see three reasons: 1)missing analyst estimates for revenue; ie, $280.6M actual v $329.3M estimated and 2) raising FY capex 23% to $1.35B "without a corresponding increase in production outlook", and 3) cost outlook increasing from $2.68 to $2.80 - $3.00 per mcf

Selling is way overdone. Versus a year ago, that $280.6M revenue is up 23% and net profit is up $0.40 per share.

A Motley Fool article on July 25 cited three reasons why UPL is well positioned: 1) all-in cost of $2.68/mcf less than half the industry "mean of $5.62/mcf, 2) UPL incresed reserves over the last 5 years at a 17% annualized rate, and 3) management expects +50% production growth in the next 3 years.

The negatives on all-in cost and missing the revenue estimate are not large enough to warrant this stock trading down.

The increase in capex and the bid on the Colorado shale are items I need to do more research on.

Pending that I may lose some of my nervousness and add to my UPL holding.
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