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Author: Starrob Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Ticker Guide Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75  
Subject: The Ultimate Poker Game Date: 4/26/2009 11:10 AM
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I was just watching the NFL Draft on the NFL Channel and I heard it describe by one of the analysts as the "Ultimate Poker Game". They made that comment after going through the unique circumstances of how the NY Jets were able to draft the quarterback Sanchez from USC. They described all of the behind the scenes jockeying to move up or move down for value in the draft.

The NFL Draft http://www.nfl.com/draft/2009 sort of reminds me of investing. Everyone looks at all the raw statistics and decides whether or not to draft a particular stock into their portfolio.

They have a number of different styles of drafting in the NFL. Some draft for need and try to keep their portfolio diversified, while others draft according to value, only drafting players that are the highest value on their scorecard (This sometimes means a team gets loaded down with players in a few positions and are weaker in other positions).

In some ways the NFL draft is similar to investing and in other ways it is not but I find the psychology behind how the various teams make their picks interesting.

Some draft only off raw statistics....speed, weight, how much they can bench press, how high the can jump, etc...Many times this type of drafting works but teams have to beware of drafting things the only look good on the surface.....Guys can have all the numbers and look like Hulk Hogan and end up being more sizzle than steak like this:

http://bolstablog.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/tony-mandarich...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4073575

or like this:

"The Boz Set Free

Posted Mar 6th 2009 1:40PM by TMZ Staff

Brian Bosworth was released from jail just moments ago -- and if he looks like he just got run over by Bo Jackson, it's because cops say he was driving around Hollywood completely smashed early this morning."

http://www.tmz.com/tag/brian+bosworth/




And other times, guys that don't grade out spectacularly well but have the intangibles that make them end up being the superstars that win the superbowl:


http://www.patriots.com/team/index.cfm?ac=playerbio&bio=...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Montana


It all goes to show, the "numbers" do not all the time tell the whole story. Sometimes it is "heart" and "guts" that matter more. Sometimes it is just pure luck....good or bad.

Sometimes a freak injury ruins a whole season or career for a team. Sometimes a player that was considered a "never do well'er" has the stars align and end up in the perfect system, coaches, and organization for them to be considered among the best...It is interesting how so many factors come into play

I tend to find that many times this is how investing works also. Not all the time does the stock that grades out the best will win. Sometimes the most unexpected stocks become the "winners".

According to me...last year, I graded out the Dallas Cowboys as having the most talent. I hate Dallas but I was telling people they were going to win the superbowl. One team that graded out low to me last year was Arizona. They had has been old quarterback Kurt Warner. Their defense stunk. I mean they were going to nowhere.....only in our consensus reality they came close to winning the Superbowl. So, that is why I rail against people that think they know things for 100% certain.

People talk like they for sure know how everything in the economy will definitely work and things like the economy have trillions of different variables.

For some people that think they can predict everything....then tell make a prediction on something that has much less variables. Tell me who will win the Superbowl for the next three years in a row. That would be just as impressive to me.

One other thing interests me about the draft. There are some teams like the Steelers, Giants, New England that consistently find the players that make them "winners" more often than not and there are other teams like Detroit that consistently find the players that made them the first 0-16 team.

Why is this?? Is it all luck, all skill....or something in between. I find it interesting to see how some of these guys making the draft picks think.



Starrob
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