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The US is already in a recession/depression. There are too many people in the bread and soup lines to conclude otherwise.


Fair enough... you call it a depression and I call it a "muddle-through" economy. But we still currently run a 2%+ real GDP growth rate and that should be enough to support the corporate bond market.

Sure, Japanese culture and demographics are quite different than American, but the ending outcome can be similar if nobody wants to borrow the printed money and "velocity" just adjusts accordingly. But I'm not smart enough to predict the future (above my pay grade)... maybe we will have inflation some day... maybe a deflationary depression. Who knows what will happen when? I'm just a trend following long term value investor. I try to ignore predictions and to base my investment decisions on current and past historical data. I also try to be diversified enough so that I can ride out any cyclical troughs if and when they occur.

Yeah, the trading game is a tough gig (been there, done that). You’re competing against high-frequency traders and investors privy to inside information. On the other hand, I find "long-term buy-and-hold investing" much easier, enjoyable and also more rewarding.

But in the end, no matter what investment philosophy one practices, I agree with your final statement when you wrote: "So one enjoys the moment, and then deals with the future as it happens."

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