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Author: LeKitKat Big gold star, 5000 posts Top Favorite Fools Feste Award Nominee! Feste Award Winner! Old School Fool Global Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 19136  
Subject: the wonderful world of shoes Date: 10/31/2012 9:35 AM
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I have been spending some quality time getting to know Deckers to see if we want to go steady. The price on Friday dropped to $29 after what can be described as a Q3 so ugly the neighbors close their drapes when it cleans the house in the nude

The simple story is UGGs are a fad and the company is dead but doesn't know it sort of like the Walking Dead on AMC. It just needs a bullet in the brain to put it out of its misery

I think there is something there, but management has strayed too far from the core concept that brought them to the dance and has increased revenue by 20-fold in 18 years. They have forgotten their roots and are trying to play with the outrageous trends like jimmy choo. jimmy choo platform pumps can set you back about $2000 a pair. UGGs should not be playing here and investors may be making the point obvious if management will sit up and take notice.

Deckers sells some pricey UGGs that can go for around $1000 per pair. For a shoe that started as flip flops on the beach and post surfing warm up boots, there is something unsettling about the new direction.

jimmy choo

http://us.jimmychoo.com/en/us/viola/invt/113violasue/

This is just wrong for $1000

http://www.uggaustralia.com/womens-adela-leather-rocker-boot...

Without the stars buying $1K boots (and UGGs seem to have disappeared from Oprah's feet), these are destined to sit on the shelves. Wake up Deckers--celebrities have dumped you for choo.
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Author: stillwater9999 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 12177 of 19136
Subject: Re: the wonderful world of shoes Date: 10/31/2012 10:28 AM
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Have you taken a look at Wolverine Worldwide recently? Was taking a glance at the last VL report and it looked somewhat interesting to me, although a lower entry point would be nice.

I own NKE and Timberland through VFC currently.

sw

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Author: cautiousone100 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 12182 of 19136
Subject: Re: the wonderful world of shoes Date: 10/31/2012 2:31 PM
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LKK,
IMO, Deckers has had their "come to Jesus moment." I think investing here, and after the next quarter due to the probable margin squeeze, will work out well. But! It will take at least a year, due to sheepskin pricing, for this to happen.

I could type out my usual long-winded reply, but I found this MOST EXCELLENT write-up just this morning. :-) http://blueshiftideas.com/reports/041209DeckersUGGSalesCoolw...

Also, for those SA subscribers, TMF1000 has a great historical recap on the Stocks That Interest You Board.

Other points not mentioned by the above two sources...
Deckers, as of Dec 2011, has a new 150,000 sf headquarters.
Koolaburra is the new competitor, as celebrities go, but their production numbers are small and they are only carried in super high-end retail. They're also located in Santa Barbara.
IMO, VFC would be more than willing to buyout Deckers, though I don't want to imply that that is a current possibility. It's the perfect complement to their active lifestyle division.

cautiousone

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