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Great points !!! I really think for a 30 - 40 year horizon 50% bonds is way too conservative.

"2. Re: "withdrawing much less is much better": If you can withdraw your money at a miniscule rate, you may have worked too long! If you loved your job, no problem, but if retiring early is your goal (and calling yourself a "FIRE Wannabe" sure sounds like that category), then you worked longer than you needed to get to a "safe" withdrawal rate + a little headroom to account for unanticipated expenses."

I get hung up on this exact point. If I go too conservative I will never retire. We have to make some assumptions in order to move forward.

For example, there is a good chance that Social Serurity won't be around or will be greatly reduced for those of us who planned and saved. In my case there is also a good possibility that I will receive inheritance money. So what I do is plan on something from SS and ignore the inheritance.

Thanks for your post, I really liked your two points.

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