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Author: NajdorfSicilian Big funky green star, 20000 posts Feste Award Nominee! Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 20304  
Subject: Re: Poll: Technical Analysis Date: 5/16/2013 2:20 PM
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There are billions of people who live in conditions without these rights


What kind of strawman is this? We're on an American investing board, talking mainly -- almost solely -- about investments for Americans and Canadians that trade in the US and Canada. We haven't had good discussions about even 4 European stocks that I can remember [maybe we have but I sure don't remember them].

We've been talking about the USD price of gold, consistently.
Not about what my friends Tik Suanpong and Nusara Leelaporn can buy gold at in local fx in case of another military revolution, or the rule of law in Zimbabwe, or what Islamic child brides in Pakistan prefer on their wedding day.

Given the massive government debts in Japan, poor demographics

I specifically said gold had been a poor inflationary hedge, esp compared to stocks, which is how it has been marketed to investors.

Has Japan had high inflation the past 24 years? Or deflation??

Index funds didn't exist 80 years ago. Gold coins did

But you ignored my specific mention of Coke, GE, IBM, Hershey, banks, insurers as if they didn't exist. GE was pretty well known back then, as were cigarette makers, and JPM or Chase or BONY or State Street or Wells and Cigna and Tootsie Roll and Wrigley's.

If you bought an ounce of gold in 1919, that would cost you $19.39 based on the London fixing. Today it's worth $1383. A 72x return.

If you bought a share of Coca-Cola in 1919, that would have cost you $40. Today that share of KO with reinvested dividends would be worth $9.8 MILLION DOLLARS. A 245,000x return!

Feel free to substitute GE or AT+T or Vanguard Wellington or MFS Fund or Putnam Investors Fund or CGM Fund or Fidelity Fund if you want to start in 1925 or 1930 or 1935.

I own term life insurance ... even if I don't use doesn't make it a bad investment.

So if it goes up it's a good investment, but if it doesn't then it's another thing entirely? Ok.

Japanese-Americans, were removed from their homes and locked up for many years during WWII.

I'm so confused. Clearly any gold they held didn't help either. I don't see what Earl Warren's idiocy has to do w/r/t this topic.

In difficult times, gold is appealing.

And the Merry-Go-Round spins again: Your side can assert this all you want, it doesn't make it true [as an investment or insurance]. The plural of your anecdotes is not data.

Over the past 80 years there have been plenty of 'difficult times,' and yet gold has underperformed stocks by a VERY WIDE margin in the US. [And the UK. And I'm pretty sure in Switzerland and Canada also.]

I cannot speak for Botswana and Peru. Yes, I suppose if I ever get kidnapped by the Shining Path I'll wish I had some ready gold.

But I'll probably wish I had a bigger brokerage account full of US stocks that can be liquidated in microseconds and wired to their offshore bank accounts to pay my ransom.

As such, when gold insurance is cheap it may be worth buying, even for Americans.

Well, I couldn't agree more!

If gold was back at $250 as it was during the Bubble 1.0 days, I would [and did, ftr] absolutely suggest it could have some use in your portfolio at those sub-$300 prices. Central banks always get their massive sales wrong.

6x higher, it's a much, much tougher argument. But, as always, just make money!
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