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Author: rubberthinking Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 19936  
Subject: Re: The 'forties. Date: 7/11/2013 12:38 PM
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There is an inherent problem talking about the market in terms that suggest the market is a single thing. Even in the biggest of downdrafts there is probably something going up and vice versa. Most of the time, there is a lot of both.

Tamas,

There are problems with this line of thought. First people with large amounts of money wish to diversify in order to change their risk profile. Simply owning the three stock issues that go up in a bear market decline is not feasible for people with larger wallets. Secondly most of the market, almost all of the market will travel together. All boats rise on a rising tide. Money flows are money flows. There is not 'a lot of both' in a major correction or oncoming bear market.

What is the telltale of a great investor? Entry. What is the telltale of a surviving investor? Knowing when to sell. BRKA's purchases are in the main so good that WEB wont sell much if anything at all. The rest of us who did not buy with both hands in 2009 should more than likely be selling right now.

The one caveat to this is if your dividends from a certain stock pick(s) are so good after years of growth you want to hold onto such stock issues. Think Buffett's KO purchase and his current nominal dividends on that purchase. Why on earth would anyone sell KO if they bought it in the late 1980s or early 1990s?

Because we mere mortals live short investing lives compared to WEB, the outlier, in his 80s, we should not expect a board full of value investors to have many purchases of dividend stocks that are holds right now. The bear market starting in 2000 has knocked some 13 years off of most of our investing lives. Still if I could I would look for exceptions in my port and hold them. I haven't had any at this time.


Dave
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