There's a 10% chance (if one history is any guide) than one investment will outperform the other in 20 years. Using your reasoning, the bond investment has a 90% chance of "failure" vs the stock."stock market returns are not actuarial tables" (Investing Today: Look Forward, Not Back http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20021022.html) Historically interest rates are very low and P/Es are very high. We have sever social and economic problems locally and internationally. Our government is trying to solve these problems by stealing our savings and we quietly go along as sheep. This is not a prescription for optimism regarding future returns over the next twenty years to say the least.
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