There's no perfect way to decide whether to convert to a Roth. To call Roy's article "misleading" is going way overboard. He had a few pages to cover the basics and he did a good job. A full analysis is incredibly complex because of all the variables and speculation involved. If you want to attempt it yourself, there are some software programs on the market. Brentmark puts out a good one for professionals, the Roth IRA Conversion Analyzer for $249, and they also have a consumer-oriented analzer for $49. They're at www.rothira.com. They also have a LOAD of information there on Roth IRA planning.Even if you use something like Brentmark's analyzer, there's still a great deal of uncertainty because you HAVE to make assumptions about things you don't know about. Even if you make an assumption that the market will perform as it has historically, that still doesn't account for ups and downs that can significantly affect you in between. If an analyzer also had Monte Carlo simulation capability (to estimate the chances that certain assumptions will produce a certain result) that would be great.
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