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Things change - sometimes important things that you do not have any control over. One example my parents never figured on medicare during their working years. Tax rates and what is taxed will change.

I am guessing you are at least 25 years from retirement and it may be longer. Here is something you can use as a target for now. Assume you withdraw 4% of your investments. So if you want 40K in retirement income you need $1 million. Next determine what you are going to spend. This sounds so simple, but it is complex. When we retired, taxes went down - so income taxes dropped, Social Security and Medicare taxes ended. We stopped adding funds to our retirement fund and started pulling funds out.

Some people look at retirement as an opportunity to travel and do things they put off while working. Changes like this will increase spending. The things like medicare costs, auto insurance, utilities are easy to estimate and you can be wrong. I suggest you get a copy of Quicken and keep track of your spending. I don't see the need to account for every single penny, but if "Unaccounted" is more than 0.5%, I would wonder about projections.

When you are in the range of 10 years from retirement, you can fine turn things. That may mean more or less savings.

Do not under estimate the impact of not having a mortgage. While many view a mortgage payment as "rent" - you need income to cover that monthly expense. And unless those funds to pay the mortgage are coming from a Roth IRA or some other tax free source, you will have to pay income tax with the mortgage payment.

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