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Author: mschmit Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 701  
Subject: Re: $60 a Barrel? Sell Big Oil! Date: 10/20/2004 3:13 PM
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This article is an embarassment for those who understand math.

A recent study done by consulting firm Booz Allen predicts that within five years, 20% of the cars on America's roads could be hybrids; within a decade, the percentage could reach 80%.
...
Multiply those numbers -- 20% x 50% x 40% -- and worldwide gasoline consumption could slow by 4% over the next five years and by 16% over the next decade.


No way. (BTW I own a 2001 and 2004 Prius)
Total hybrid sales this year might be 100K...out of all new cars sold...maybe 10-20M per year (I'm not sure). Anyway, it is less than 1% of all new cars...but less than 0.1% of all cars using gas. Even if hybrid sales double every year for 5 years they would barely reach 20%...OF NEW CAR SALES (not total cars). The average car is on the road for about 15 years. If you do the math...which TMF apparently cannot...you'd see that less than 2% of all cars would be hybrids in 5 years. Even if they used zero gas, that would cause demand to drop by only 2%.

They also don't understand a few other facts about oil consumption. First, passenger cars only use 25% - 30% of oil. Industry, trucking, ships and airlines also use oil.

I ran a spreadsheet and assumed that hybrid sales doubled every year for 5 years, then increased 5% market share for the next 5 years and peaks at 50% and remained there. It would take about 12-14 years to get to 20% total installed base of all cars.

Mike
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