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Author: AstroPhool Three stars, 500 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 53647  
Subject: Re: Imagine if we enter a New Ice Age Date: 9/23/2013 2:20 AM
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This complex system is called the solubility of CO2 gas in ocean water and it is inversely proportional to temperature. As the planet is warming by coming out of the "Big glacial episode," the ocean is releasing CO2 with a lag of about 1000 years:

just yesterday, there was a new paper in Science - Lowell et al., Science 2007 - that showed that CO2 lagged by about 1,000 years when the last ice age started to end 18,000 years ago see
http://motls.blogspot.com/2006/07/carbon-dioxide-and-tempera......


Loren just posted a link to the Parrenin *2013* paper, published just few months ago, demonstrating convincingly that Antarctic temperatures varied in synchronism with atmospheric CO2. The Science 2007 paper you mention, which is actually Stott et al. (2007) -- Lowell is the author's first name:

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/318/5849/435.abstract

found deep-sea temperatures warmed ahead of surface temperatures and CO2 -- so there is no discrepancy with Parrenin here.

Loren also linked to his own plot of the data. If there was a lag of 1000 years, it would be obvious from Loren's figure. There is in fact *no* significant lag between surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2. Take a look at his figure for yourself....

http://www.aetheling.com/climate/fool/Vostok-20k.pdf

In the end, there are no studies and no data to support your assertion that higher levels of CO2, from say a historical base of 280 ppm, are causing warming.

Why don't you take a look at this figure from Marcott et al. 2013

http://www.realclimate.org/images//Marcott.png

The sharp spike at the far right correlates well with the rapid runup in atmospheric CO2 over the past century, and of course, is consistent with theoretical predictions.

And I point to the pause of the last 17 years - Where is the warming?

Funny isn't it how every so often a post will pop up talking about the weak sun and the imminent new "Little Ice Age" just around the corner? Well, the last solar maximum was the least active since 1915 -- at the time of the last grand solar minimum, and almost as inactive as the grand minimum of 1816. These were quite cold periods, and this cold was very probably due to the inactive sun.

But -- it's not cold now! It's not even close to being cold! The past 2-3 years has still been among the warmest on record, even with the inactive sun. But then these same folks will carp on and on about the "pause", and because of this, denounce climate models as being trash.

Folks, welcome to the Little Ice Age of the 21st century! The weak sun is the reason for the pause, and the reason why the models are predicting a greater than observed warming -- it's because the models don't include solar variability (because no-one has been able to predict solar cycles yet). The "pause" is just the latest round of solar cooling which has --- temporarily -- stopped the atmospheric warming due to CO2.

The sun will recover, and the La Nina years will come to an end soon enough. Then we'll see some real warmth.

Phil
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