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Author: RodimusPrime Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 96190  
Subject: Re: Going for 2 with a 4-point lead Date: 10/20/2011 4:20 PM
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This decision baffles me too! Here is how I see it...

By giving little significance to +5 vs +4 difference, you are saying (1) that your team is likely to stop the opponent from scoring a TD. Otherwise, you'd keep the +5 because it lets you kick a game-winning FG on your next possession.

And by giving much significance to +6 vs +5, you are saying (2) that your team is NOT likely to stop the opponent from scoring two FGs. Otherwise, you'd keep the +5 because going for 1 is what you've done all game so you must like those percentages better.

In other words, by going for 2 at +4 you are saying that (1) your team is likely to stop the opponent from scoring a TD, but that (2) your team is NOT likely to stop the opponent from scoring two FGs. So you think that your opponent is more likely to put together two FG drives against you than one TD drive?? This seems like a "no confidence" vote in your defense.

--Rod
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