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Author: albert67 One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 115  
Subject: Re: +1/8? Date: 8/29/1998 7:28 AM
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This dog is down 75% from its summer high of ca. 42!

The sell-off in commodities has now been exacerbated by the problems in Russia (the world's second largest oil producer). Russia's problems won't disappear overnight, but how that will impact oil (and other commodities) is uncertain. If they descend into chaos and martial law, if anything, their productive capacity will decrease, taking supply off the market.

I don't really know (does anyone?) the situation in China. If their oil fields are in fact likely to be out of service for some significant period of time, obviously they'll have to import more. I wouldn't imagine that this effect would be long-lasting though.

Low oil prices will also lead to more consolidation in the industry (a la BP-Amoco). Triton's assets are now attractively priced, and I remain confident that a buy-out offer will eventually come.

I don't know what timescale to expect some better price action, but my sense is that this stock has been brutally oversold. I'm in it longish-term, and OIL complements my diversified portfolio. Frankly I'm more scared of holding high multiple stocks (like Gillete and Coke, and the banks) than Triton.

I'm also intending to continue to write some covered call options on the position to bring down my average costs, now ca. 14.25

I've also taken a punt and bought some LUKOIL (A Russian Oil company that's fallen 90% in less than a year--trades OTC in Europe)

Good luck.
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