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Author: heihojin Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 1443  
Subject: Re: Sock it to me Date: 7/20/2000 6:36 PM
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This paragraph represents a complete and common misunderstanding of the rules of probability. Expectation is not the same as outcome.

Don't throw stones in glass houses, Rick. Your reasoning is wholly fallacious, and only highlights your ignorance in this matter.

For someone to "beat" the game, in the sense that most students of gambling theory interpret, the player must be playing in such a way so that their expectation is positive. Walking away with a net positive result is not beating the game, because there is no guarantee over time that you can duplicte the result. You can only duplicate the result if you have a positive expectation for your play.

No one plays Craps with a positive expectation. No one. Period. It is mathematically impossible.

Every time someone plays Craps, the house has an edge. This is a mathematical fact, and if you wish to dispute, you'll have to provide much stronger evidence than, "Well, I know someone who walked away with a net positive result..."

I expected better arguments from you.

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